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Academy > Technical Analysis > Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will It Ever Go Higher Than $20,000? >

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will It Ever Go Higher Than $20,000?

2022-10-20 10:37:34

Bitcoin has been incredibly volatile since it was first created, and its price has fluctuated wildly. In general, however, Bitcoin has seen substantial growth in both its price and its popularity as an investment asset.

Over the past few years, especially, Bitcoin has become increasingly mainstream, with a growing number of institutional investors adding it to their portfolios. While there is no guarantee that this trend will continue, it does suggest that Bitcoin could maintain or even grow its position as a top investment asset in the future.

Here are what some of the most outspoken enthusiasts say in response to the most common questions about its future price performance.

btc price prediction banner

Bitcoin Price in 2022

With both crypto and global financial markets correcting significantly in 2022 due to growing inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin has lost about 70% of its $69,000 valuation from November 2021.

In an August 2022 interview, billionaire hedge fund manager Michael Novogratz, who several years ago made some pretty accurate predictions about Bitcoin’s price, said

“Will Bitcoin get through $30,000 on this move up? We will see – I’m doubtful. I think we’re going to probably be in this range now. I quite frankly would be happy if we’re in a $20,000, $22,000 or $30,000 range for a while…we’re not seeing huge institutional flows, to be fair, but we’re not seeing anyone back away.”

Bitcoin price in Jan - Oct 2022

Indeed, Bitcoin price seems to have stabilized around the $19,000 to $20,000 mark throughout the second and third quarter of 2022.

What is the Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2023?

Factoring in the likely scenario of further US interest rate hikes (there has been five so far this year), many predict that Bitcoin’s price will sink even lower than the $20,000 range it has been hanging out at for pretty much of the past four months.

In an interview with Stansberry Research, well-respected technical trader Gareth Soloway and president of InTheMoneyStocks.com said,

“I have a [bitcoin] target around $12,000,” although qualifying that his “long-term view on bitcoin is extremely bullish,” and that $60,000 per coin would be the “low-end of what’s in store.”

At the other extreme, there are others like Tone Vays, another prominent cryptocurrency and derivatives trader, who said that Bitcoin will hit $100K in 2023 during a Kitco interview in October 2022.

“Everyone will stop laughing at El Salvador,” he said in reference to the first country in the world to start using Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021 (with BTC having lost 70% since the start of the year, the country’s president Nayib Bukele has been under pressure from the IMF and World Bank to reverse the decision.)

What will Bitcoin be worth in 2025?

LongForecast, which specializes in the long-term forecasting of financial markets. is bullish on BTC’s 2025 price target, expecting its value to continue its long-term upward trajectory.

By early 2025 LongForecast expects a single BTC to be worth somewhere between $68,000-88,000. This would represent well over a three-fold price increase from its current valuation of $20,000.

However, it sees the price spike in early 2025 followed by a sell-off which would see BTC return to below $50,000 by the end of the year.

S2F Model with Bitcoin Predictions till Jan 2026

S2F Model with Bitcoin Predictions till Jan 2026 (Source: buybitcoinworldwide)

The author of the stock-to-flow model, Plan B, is convinced that Bitcoin’s price will surpass $200,000 by 2025, as the rate of new supply of Bitcoin falls even more with each halving.

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model: Does it Work?

What will Bitcoin be worth in 2030?

Ark Invest, an investment management firm that has made well-rewarded bets in the technology sector, has predicted that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030. Its CEO Cathie Woods expects that in the next five years, it will probably go to $500,000. She has also been quoted as saying that if she could only own just one crypto, it would be Bitcoin because countries are now accepting it as legal tender.

Echoing her optimism is Michael Saylor, chairman of software company MicroStrategy, who said at MarketWatch’s Best New Ideas in Money in September 2022 that Bitcoin could return to its $68,990 peak “sometime in the next four years” and hit $500,000 in the next decade.

Michael Saylor is highly optimistic about Bitcoin

Michael Saylor (right) is known for his highly optimistic tweets about Bitcoin (Source: Twitter)

More modest predictions come from fellow ardent Bitcoin supporter Chamath Palihapitiya, who said in an interview with CNBC,

“Where is it going? It’s probably going to $100,000 to $150,000, then to $200,000. In what period – I don’t know – 5 years, 10 years, but it’s going there.”

Many of such bullish price predictions are based on the view that Bitcoin will wrestle market share from gold, given that Bitcoin, commonly referred to as “digital gold,” is designed for the digital economy.

According to David Mercer, CEO of LMAX Group which owns the institutional crypto exchange LMAX Digital, crypto as an asset class (which is worth just under $1 trillion as of October 2022) will overtake gold (worth $10 – $12 trillion) within the decade.

Bitcoin Price Predictions By Different Models

YearStock-to-Flow (S2F)Rainbow Chart
2023$100,000$100,000
2024$288,000$600,000+
2025$500,000+“Somewhere in the high six-figures”

A note of caution: trade responsibly, and never based on price predictions from any single source.

What Is Bitcoin Rainbow Chart: So Easy A Child Can Read It – Phemex Academy

What Was Bitcoin Price Prediction In 2010 to 2015?

In 2013, the afore-mentioned Michael Novogratz predicted that Bitcoin would reach $10,000 in 3-4 years. And he was right on the money, as Bitcoin hit that price mark in 2017.

In 2014, Tim Draper, a well-known venture capitalist, said that Bitcoin would reach $10,000 in just three years. Again, he was right on the money, as Bitcoin hit that price mark in 2017.

In 2015, John McAfee – the founder of McAfee antivirus software – predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1 million by 2020. While that may seem like a stretch, stranger things have happened in the world of cryptocurrency.

So, there you have it – three predictions that have come true so far. Who knows what the future holds for Bitcoin? One thing is for sure, though – this digital currency is here to stay.

11 BTC price predictions from 2018

11 BTC price predictions from 2018 (Source: ihodl)

3 Biggest Factors that Will Drive Bitcoin Price Up

  1. The current economic conditions are favorable for Bitcoin. With traditional currencies like the US dollar losing value due to inflation, more and more people are turning to Bitcoin as a store of value. This increased demand is reflected in the currency’s price, which has been steadily rising since early 2020.
  2. Mainstream companies are increasingly accepting Bitcoin. One of the main barriers to wider adoption of Bitcoin has been lack of acceptance by mainstream businesses. However, this is slowly changing, with major companies like Microsoft, AT&T, and Overstock now allowing customers to pay with Bitcoin. Even MacDonald’s has started accepting crypto as payment in Switzerland. As adoption increases, so too will demand–and price–for the currency.
  3. Institutional investors are taking notice of Bitcoin. Previously, Bitcoin has largely been ignored by institutional investors. However, this is starting to change, with firms like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs announcing plans to invest in cryptocurrencies. This increased interest from big money investors will help to drive up the price of Bitcoin even further.
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2 biggest factors that will drive Bitcoin price down

  1. Regulatory clampdown. Possibly the biggest reason for Bitcoin’s price to fall is regulatory change. If countries cracked down on cryptocurrency exchanges or placed restrictions on Bitcoin ownership, it could cause the price to plummet.
  2. Competition. Secondly, and this does not seem extremely plausible, but a lack of innovation could cause Bitcoin to fall by the wayside and lose its place as the leading cryptocurrency. This is because Bitcoin currently can only process a very limited number of transactions per second (5 – 7); many other blockchains have in fact eclipsed Bitcoin in scalability and throughput. Innovation in layer 2 solutions such as Lightning Network have vastly increased the processing capability of Bitcoin, but it looks to be a tight race. Rival digital currencies, the most prominent being Ethereum, could eclipse it in time to come.

What is Bitcoin Dominance: 4 Trading Strategies – Phemex Academy

Will Bitcoin go back down to $10K?

Against a highly pessimistic outlook on the global economy as various countries grapple with record-high inflation rates, there is a possibility that Bitcoin will fall even further from its current price of $19,000 to $10,000.

This was according to Bloomberg’s Markets Live Weekly Pulse survey–60% of the 950 investors polled feel that the world’s biggest crypto will more likely tumble to $10,000 instead of rallying back to $30,000 anytime soon.

Is it too late to buy Bitcoin?

Interestingly, this was the question many people were also asking in 2017, when Bitcoin hit a new peak of over $17,000 in December. Little did they know that it would chart a new all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.

According to YCharts, Bitcoin has made a 20,000,000% return for its early investors since 2011. If you’re hoping to achieve such gains, the answer to the question, “Is it too late to buy Bitcoin?” is probably yes.

If you have spare cash for investment i.e. money you can afford to lose:

  • Consider your options
  • Be brutally honest about your risk appetite
  • Make a decision

What Can You Earn if You Invest $100 in Bitcoin Today? 

Is Bitcoin a safe long-term investment?

Even with the current price correction back to the 20K range, Bitcoin is still the best-performing asset class in the world over the past decade, higher than the stock markets.

Having said that, Bitcoin is still a maturing asset with only 13 years’ of price history.

If you have a low risk tolerance, you may wish to consider investing only a small percentage of your funds into crypto, so that you limit your downside risk.

The same rule of investing in the traditional financial markets apply to crypto: the higher the risk, the higher the return.

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Is Bitcoin price predictable? How to predict Bitcoin price?

Bitcoin’s price has been correctly predicted by as many people as it has been wrongly predicted. Even those who once correctly called its price at some point in the past have gotten it wrong subsequently.

Prediction markets, on the other hand, harnesses the wisdom of crowds in deciding on the outcome of a particular event. It is a platform where people bet on binary outcomes such as:

Will Bitcoin (BTC) reach its all-time high in 2022? Yes/No

The premise is that people make more accurate forecasts when they have money on the line, and in addition to that, the combination of multiple, independent judgments is often more accurate than an expert’s individual judgment.

Phemex recently became the industry’s first centralized exchange (CEX) to launch a prediction market, where users can trade outcomes using crypto. To participate in upcoming events, check out Phemex Prediction Markets.

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Which technical indicators can predict Bitcoin price?

While there isn’t a specific technical indicator that can predict Bitcoin’s price, the Stock-to-Flow chart by the earlier-quoted Plan B has been widely quoted as a reliable forecasting tool. The chart maps prices to the supply schedule of Bitcoin.

Obviously, the chart should be taken with a grain of salt; according to it, Bitcoin’s price would hit $78,280 on 31st December 2022. At time of writing, it is struggling to even clear the $20,000 mark, after falling from its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. The chart also projects Bitcoin price to be  $81,956 by 31 December 2023.

The Logarithmic Growth Curves live chart, which uses previous price history analysis to make Bitcoin price forecasts, is another chart some traders use.


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