UBS Wealth Management revised its prior view and now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates twice in 2026, with 25-basis-point increases in September and December. The moves would lift the federal funds target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 4.00%-4.25%. The shift follows stronger U.S. job growth data released last Friday and July PCE inflation rising 3.7% year over year, above expectations. Market pricing now implies the probability of a September rate hike has increased to about 60% from roughly 50%. UBS said the expected impact on economic growth should remain modest, supported by continued AI capital spending, and still expects growth to stay near trend levels.