UBS maintains a bullish medium- to long-term outlook for gold, projecting price support near $4,000 per ounce and a rise to $5,400 by September 2027. The bank attributes current price pressure to short-term speculative deleveraging driven by rising U.S. real interest rates and a stronger dollar, which have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and prompted non-commercial traders to cut net long positions. Despite this speculative retreat, structural demand remains resilient with continued inflows into gold ETFs in recent weeks. UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo notes that this divergence suggests medium- to long-term allocation demand has not reversed, indicating structural buying is partially offsetting interest rate headwinds even as further short-term declines remain possible.