The probability of the Federal Reserve making no 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026 has increased to 58% on Polymarket, marking a 9% rise in the past 24 hours. The prediction event, which has seen nearly $22 million in trading volume, will settle based on the actual number of 25-basis-point cuts made by the Fed in 2026, including any cuts at the December meeting. The market remains open until December 31, 2026, and will settle early as "No" if the specified number of cuts is not achieved. Recent U.S. economic data has led to a slight increase in expectations for a Fed rate hike before the end of 2026.