Huatai Securities said August core CPI rose more than expected month on month, making a September Federal Reserve rate hike a “must” and increasing credibility risks if policymakers hold rates steady. The firm said stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls, oil prices above $100 amid Middle East tensions, persistent core services inflation excluding housing, low oil inventories, downstream AI-related price increases and a new round of partial tariffs could disrupt the U.S. disinflation process. Huatai said the CPI data may push neutral FOMC members, including Waller, toward a more hawkish stance at the September meeting, reducing internal resistance to a rate hike. It warned that if Warsh fails to deliver on hawkish commitments from the August Jackson Hole meeting, Fed credibility could face greater pressure and long-end Treasury yields may become harder to control.