CICC Research expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its Sept. 16 meeting after the latest U.S. inflation data met the threshold for a rate hike.
U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month over month, up from 0.1% in July, and 3.4% year over year, unchanged from the previous month. Core CPI increased 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year, slightly above market expectations. CICC said the Fed may lower its unemployment-rate forecast, raise its inflation projections and lift its 2027 and 2028 interest-rate paths, signaling that tighter policy could persist longer. A more hawkish scenario would involve another rate hike later this year or next year, potentially prompting markets to reprice for a longer tightening cycle.
CICC Expects Fed to Raise Rates by 25 Basis Points on Sept. 16
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