The probability of Hormuz Strait traffic returning to normal before April 30 has surged to 57% on Polymarket, marking a 43% increase in the past 24 hours. The current trading volume for this prediction market stands at approximately $4.07 million. The market outcome is determined by IMF PortWatch data, requiring the 7-day moving average of transiting vessels to reach or exceed 60 for a "Yes" outcome. This includes various ship types such as container ships and tankers. Iran's Foreign Minister recently assured safe navigation through the strait in the coming weeks.