Quick Answer: Bitcoin’s short-term holder MVRV, or STH-MVRV, compares the current market price with the estimated realized price of coins in the short-term holder cohort. A reading above 1 means the cohort is, on average, above its estimated cost basis; below 1 means it is underwater. A move near 1 can matter to traders, but it does not prove that Bitcoin has found support or predict a reversal.
What does “short-term holder” mean?
On-chain analysts group coins by how recently they moved. Glassnode’s short- and long-term holder framework uses a coin-age threshold of roughly 155 days to separate the cohorts. This is an analytical classification of on-chain coin history, not a list of named investors. A coin moved between wallets owned by one person may still appear as movement; provider adjustments and methodology affect the estimate.
The realized price of a cohort is an estimated average price based on the value assigned to coins when they last moved on-chain. It is not every holder’s actual purchase price, and it does not include every off-chain exchange trade.
How is STH-MVRV calculated?
Glassnode describes STH-MVRV as the ratio of market value to realized value for the short-term holder cohort. In price terms, a useful shorthand is:
STH-MVRV ≈ current BTC price ÷ short-term holder realized price.
If Bitcoin traded at a hypothetical $75,000 and the cohort realized price were $80,000, the ratio would be 0.9375. That would suggest an average unrealized loss of about 6.25% relative to that estimated cost basis. The example is arithmetic, not a claim about today’s measured STH cost basis. Do not substitute the $75,965 Phemex price screenshot for a Glassnode cohort reading.
Why do traders watch the 1.0 line?
At 1.0, the current price and the cohort’s estimated realized price coincide. Some recent buyers may be more sensitive to losses around this area, so analysts watch whether price holds, rejects, or repeatedly crosses it. But the cohort itself changes as coins age or move, and the realized price can shift. “Cost basis” therefore describes a moving estimate rather than a fixed wall of orders.
The ratio also does not reveal whether holders intend to sell. A reading below 1 could persist for weeks or months. A reading above 1 can coexist with falling price. To assess a possible support area, compare the metric with time-aligned volume, spot price structure, derivatives leverage, and other on-chain behavior; specify the observation period before drawing a conclusion.
The Phemex spot screen lets you inspect the BTC/USDT market and, where available, place an order after reviewing price and fees. It does not display STH-MVRV. Consult the Glassnode chart for the cohort metric and note its update time and methodology. An on-chain reading is not an instruction to buy or sell.
What do different readings actually say?
Treat the value as a description of the cohort's estimated unrealized position, not a price target. If the ratio is 1.10, the market value is about 10% above that cohort's realized value under the provider's method. If it is 0.90, it is about 10% below. Those percentages are not the same as the next likely price move; they are a comparison with a historical cost estimate.
The interpretation also depends on how the ratio reached its level. A falling market price can push it below 1 while the cohort realized price moves little. Alternatively, a changing set of coins in the short-term cohort can shift the denominator. Look at the price series and cohort realized-price series separately. A ratio chart alone hides which component changed.
| STH-MVRV reading | What it describes | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| Above 1 | Cohort market value exceeds estimated realized value | That every short-term holder is profitable |
| Near 1 | Market and estimated cohort realized values are close | A defended support order or guaranteed rebound |
| Below 1 | Cohort market value is below estimated realized value | Capitulation, a final low or a buy signal |
How can a trader check a claimed “STH support level”?
Ask for the data provider, observation date and exact metric. Some commentary uses the STH realized price in dollars, while other commentary uses the dimensionless STH-MVRV ratio. They are related, but they are not interchangeable. If an analyst claims a $76,000 STH cost basis, that is a dated realized-price estimate requiring a source; it cannot be read from a BTC spot screenshot or inferred solely from the MVRV formula.
Then compare the claim with a time-aligned BTC price. A level that was close to market price a week ago may have moved. Check whether the price reacted there repeatedly and whether trading volume and derivatives positioning support the interpretation. Even if several indicators line up, a support zone can fail. Use the metric to frame a question about current holders' exposure, rather than treating it as an automatic entry rule.
What are the main measurement limits?
On-chain methods observe coins, not the complete finances of people or institutions. A custodial exchange can move coins without changing its customers' economic exposure, and customers can trade internally without moving coins on-chain. Coin-age thresholds are conventions; different providers can smooth the transition or adjust for known exchange activity. Historical series may also be revised when wallet labels improve. These limits matter most when an article assigns a precise dollar support level to a cohort that is only estimated.
When comparing a historical STH-MVRV chart with today's reading, keep the provider and sampling interval consistent. A weekly screenshot and an hourly value may describe different points in a fast-moving market. Record the date, time zone, metric name and data-source update time next to any quoted value. If a commentator says the ratio “flashed support,” ask whether Bitcoin actually traded and held above the related realized-price level after the signal; a touch alone is not confirmation. This simple audit makes the analysis reproducible and prevents an old cohort estimate from being treated as a live order-book level.
FAQ
Is STH-MVRV below 1 a buy signal?
No. It indicates an estimated average unrealized loss for the cohort, not a guaranteed floor or return.
Is STH realized price the same as an exchange average entry price?
No. It is inferred from on-chain coin movements and valuation rules; exchange account histories are different data.
