U.S. consumer spending is expected to slow as tax refunds from the Trump administration's rebate program dwindle and oil prices surge due to the ongoing conflict in Iran. The rebates, averaging nearly $3,500 per person, had bolstered consumer spending, but with these funds depleting and fuel costs rising, economists warn of financial strain on American households. Retailers like Walmart and Target have noted the positive impact of the rebates on sales but anticipate a slowdown as fuel prices claim a larger share of discretionary spending. The conflict in the Middle East has led to a 50% increase in gasoline and diesel prices, exacerbating inflation and outpacing wage growth. This has resulted in a decline in real incomes, with consumer sentiment reaching historic lows. Economists predict that the spending slowdown will act as a "speed bump" for U.S. economic growth, with lower-income households feeling the strain most acutely. As financial pressures mount, consumer confidence continues to decline, signaling potential challenges for the U.S. economy in the coming months.