Bitcoin (BTC) experiences its strongest single-day returns on US federal holidays, according to a CoinGecko study analyzing data from May 2013 to May 2026. The study found that New Year’s Day yields an average next-day return of +2.01% with an 84.6% win rate. Overall, US holidays produce an average next-day return of +0.77%, significantly higher than the +0.19% baseline for non-holidays. Columbus Day also shows an 84.6% win rate with a +1.70% next-day average return, while Christmas Day and Labor Day see gains of +1.46% and +1.22%, respectively. However, Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Independence Day buck the trend, with average returns of -0.84% and -0.26%, respectively. CoinGecko attributes the New Year’s Day effect to fresh capital allocations and tax-loss selling reversals. The study also notes that within the trading week, Monday and Wednesday tie for the highest average next-day returns at +0.38%, while Thursday is the only day with a negative average return of -0.09%. The weekday-weekend return gap is minimal, suggesting holiday timing may offer marginal value in short-term trading strategies.