Micron Technology is experiencing a surge in demand for its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, driven by the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure. The company's stock has soared over 45% in the past month, with all its HBM output through 2026 already contracted. However, concerns are rising about potential supply gluts as the semiconductor industry's capital expenditure cycle accelerates. Micron, along with SK Hynix and Samsung, controls over 95% of the global memory market, benefiting from a consolidated market structure. Despite this, the planned ramp-up in capital expenditures by these companies could lead to an oversupply, potentially impacting pricing and margins. Micron's capex-to-depreciation ratio is expected to reach 3x by 2027, indicating significant investment in new manufacturing capacity. While current fundamentals for Micron are strong, with contracted supply and record margins, the risk of a future supply-demand imbalance looms. Investors are advised to monitor hyperscaler capex plans and the timeline for new fabrication facilities to gauge the sustainability of the AI memory supercycle.