Fidelity Digital Assets said Bitcoin’s bear market may not be over despite a sharp late-August rebound across crypto markets. In its Q4 crypto market outlook, the firm said some investors are watching for a November bottom based on the four-year cycle theory, but warned the pattern may not repeat. Fidelity said the market may have already bottomed in July, or could still set a new low in November or later.
The report said major tokens posted their biggest monthly gains since the end of 2025, with Bitcoin rising more than 25% in a single week in late August, while Ether and Solana gained 34.1% and 28%, respectively. Fidelity added that recent negative factors, including hardware wallet security incidents and stalled progress on the CLARITY Act, did not push prices lower, which may strengthen the view that crypto assets are nearing a bottom.
Fidelity also pointed to continued on-chain adoption, saying stablecoin transaction volume has reached 2.3 times that of Visa and that the RWA market is set to grow faster in 2026 than in previous years. The CLARITY Act remains under Senate review, while the SEC last week introduced its Regulation Crypto Assets proposal. Fidelity said investors should maintain a long-term perspective.
Fidelity Says Bitcoin Bear Market May Not Be Over, Warns of Possible New Low in November
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