The probability of a permanent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran by April 30 has fallen to 4%, according to Polymarket data, marking a 7% decrease in the past 24 hours. The event contract, which has seen over $54 million in trading volume, stipulates that the market will resolve as "Yes" if a permanent peace agreement is reached by the deadline. Such an agreement must explicitly state the end of military hostilities between the two nations. Temporary agreements or those not definitively ending hostilities do not qualify. The primary information sources for this market are official statements from the U.S. and Iranian governments, with other credible reports also considered.