Traders remain doubtful about a potential compromise between the U.S. and Iran, despite predictions of an inevitable agreement. The Polymarket contract, which speculates on the end of U.S. military actions against Iran by April 30, has seen its "Yes" probability plummet to 14.5%, down from 32% just 24 hours ago. Over the past week, this probability has dropped from 38%, reflecting market skepticism about any diplomatic breakthrough before the deadline. The market's daily notional value stands at $213,788, with a trading volume of $68,607. A 5-point price movement requires $4,074, indicating that small trades have limited impact on price shifts. The largest price movement in the past 24 hours occurred at 6:59 PM, with a brief 5-point rise that failed to sustain. Each "Yes" share is priced at $0.145, offering a potential 6.9x return if military actions cease by April 30. However, traders are looking for concrete signals, such as scheduled talks or mediator involvement, to drive prices higher.