Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, has seen over $100 million traded on predictions related to potential conflicts involving Iran. With 246 active markets, the total trading volume for Iran-related predictions has surpassed $1 billion. These markets cover a wide range of scenarios, from the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to potential military actions by Iran against neighboring countries. The platform's granular approach allows users to bet on specific events, such as whether the Pahlavi crown prince will return to Iran or if a ceasefire will be achieved by a certain date. This micro-event trading mirrors the evolution seen in sports betting, where focus shifted to player-specific outcomes and real-time odds. As prediction markets grow, they raise questions about the intersection of media, capital, and war information, with journalists playing a crucial role in contract arbitration based on credible reports.