Is XRP Worth Buying? Price Outlook, Risks and Investment Case Explained

XRP sits at roughly $1.50 in mid-February 2026, down 59% from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65. That gap between where it traded six months ago and where it trades now is the entire investment question. Behind the price decline, Ripple has been on one of the most aggressive acquisition sprees in crypto history, spending nearly $4 billion to build institutional infrastructure. Seven spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 and pulled $1.14 billion in assets within six weeks. The SEC lawsuit that hung over XRP for five years ended in August 2025 with Ripple paying just $50 million against the original $2 billion demand. And yet the price is lower than it was at the start of 2025.

That disconnect between improving fundamentals and declining price is either a buying opportunity or a warning that the market sees something the headlines miss. This article breaks down both sides.

Why Is XRP Still Relevant in 2026?

XRP is the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap (~$88 billion), the native token of the XRP Ledger (XRPL), and the centerpiece of Ripple's cross-border payment network. Unlike Bitcoin, which competes for store-of-value positioning, or Ethereum, which anchors DeFi and smart contract ecosystems, XRP has a narrower thesis: faster and cheaper international money movement.

That thesis became investable in 2025 when three barriers fell almost simultaneously.

The SEC lawsuit ended. In August 2025, both Ripple and the SEC withdrew their appeals, cementing the 2023 ruling that XRP sold on public exchanges is not a security. Ripple's $50 million settlement was 96% less than the SEC originally demanded, and all individual executives were cleared. The ruling created the legal foundation for XRP ETFs and removed the primary reason institutions had avoided the token since 2020.

ETFs brought real capital. Seven spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 from issuers including Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, Bitwise, and Canary Capital. These products saw 24 consecutive days of net inflows with zero outflow days, locking up roughly 746 million XRP in custody. Franklin Templeton alone gave approximately 13,000 financial advisors access to XRP through its platform. The ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP), a 2x leveraged futures product, had already been approved in July 2025.

Ripple built institutional infrastructure. Between 2023 and 2025, Ripple spent nearly $4 billion acquiring companies that serve traditional finance. This was not speculative positioning. These were operational businesses with real clients and revenue.

The Hidden Road acquisition is the most significant. Renamed to Ripple Prime, it makes Ripple the first crypto company to own a global multi-asset prime broker. Since the acquisition announcement, Ripple Prime's business has grown 3x. RLUSD, Ripple's dollar-backed stablecoin, is already accepted as collateral for prime brokerage products.

The Bull Case for Buying XRP

The investment case rests on three pillars that, if they converge, could push XRP materially higher from current levels.

Pillar 1: Banking integration. Ripple filed for a national bank charter with the OCC in December 2025, with conditional approval reportedly received. If fully granted, Ripple would get direct access to Federal Reserve systems, a development that would make traditional banks significantly more comfortable building on Ripple's rails. The $4 billion in acquisitions was specifically designed to create an integrated stack: custody (Metaco), prime brokerage (Ripple Prime), treasury management (GTreasury), stablecoin settlement (RLUSD), and payments (RippleNet + Rail). No other crypto company has assembled this combination.

Pillar 2: ETF-driven supply compression. Over 803 million XRP are now locked in ETF custody. Meanwhile, XRP held on exchanges has dropped from roughly 4 billion to under 1.5 billion tokens over the past twelve months. ETF inflows remove liquid supply from the market, and unlike retail buyers who may sell at any time, ETF custody tends to be sticky. Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Assets Research projects XRP at $8 by end of 2026, with much of that thesis resting on cumulative ETF inflows reaching $4 to $8 billion.

Pillar 3: RLUSD as a utility driver. Ripple's stablecoin launched in December 2024 and crossed $1.3 billion in circulation by late 2025. It works alongside XRP rather than competing with it: RLUSD handles final settlement where price stability matters, while XRP provides instant liquidity when moving value between currencies. A pilot with Mastercard, WebBank, and Gemini is testing RLUSD for settling card payments on-chain. BNY Mellon serves as primary reserve custodian. If RLUSD scales, it pulls XRP transaction volume with it.

The Bear Case Against Buying XRP

The risks are real and the bears have legitimate arguments.

Only 40% of RippleNet actually uses XRP. Ripple's payment network has 300+ partners, but the majority use Ripple's messaging software without touching XRP. On-Demand Liquidity (the service that requires XRP) processed $15 billion in 2024. That sounds meaningful until you compare it to SWIFT handling trillions daily. The central bear argument is simple: RippleNet can succeed while XRP the token remains marginally utilized.

Monthly escrow unlocks create persistent supply pressure. Ripple locked 55 billion XRP into escrow in 2017, releasing up to 1 billion XRP monthly. Historically, 60% to 80% is re-locked, meaning 200 to 400 million XRP enters potential circulation each month. That is a structural headwind. Even though the mechanism is predictable and on-chain, it means XRP faces dilution that Bitcoin (fixed supply, no corporate treasury) and Ethereum (deflationary burn mechanism) do not.

Price behavior contradicts the fundamental narrative. XRP hit $3.65 in July 2025 and sits at $1.50 seven months later. During that time, the SEC case resolved, ETFs launched, and Ripple made its biggest acquisitions. If all of that could not sustain the price, bulls need to explain what will. The counterargument is that crypto markets corrected broadly, but XRP dropped harder (-59%) than Bitcoin (~-30%) over the same period, suggesting XRP-specific selling pressure from whales. On-chain data showed large holders dumped approximately 1.4 billion tokens in late 2025, followed by another 510 million in a single week.

CBDC competition looms. Central banks worldwide are developing their own digital currencies for cross-border settlement. If governments build their own rails, the need for a private bridge currency like XRP diminishes, regardless of how well Ripple's technology works.

RLUSD could cannibalize XRP. If institutional clients prefer RLUSD's stability over XRP's volatility for settlement, stablecoin growth on Ethereum and other chains could reduce the necessity of XRP on XRPL itself.

XRP Tokenomics at a Glance

The burn mechanism on XRPL destroys a small amount of XRP with every transaction (minimum 0.00001 XRP per transaction), but the burn rate is negligible relative to total supply. XRP is not meaningfully deflationary despite having a fixed supply cap.

Where Is XRP Price Headed?

February is historically weak for XRP, with a median return of roughly -8% and average of -5%. The 2025 February saw a 29% decline. Technical indicators as of mid-February 2026 show XRP trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI in deeply oversold territory.

Near-term levels to watch: $1.40 support (coincides with the 200-day EMA and has held so far), $1.69 as the next meaningful support below that, and $1.97 resistance on the upside. Reclaiming $2.00 with volume would shift momentum. A break below $1.38 on a daily close opens a path toward $1.15 to $1.25.

The broader outlook depends on which catalysts materialize. A Ripple bank charter approval would be a major positive catalyst. Continued ETF inflows tightening supply, combined with RLUSD scaling through the Mastercard partnership, could support a move back toward $2.50 to $3.00. Standard Chartered's $8 target requires $4 to $8 billion in cumulative ETF inflows and accelerating banking adoption, which is ambitious but not impossible. Analyst base cases for end-of-2026 cluster between $2.45 and $3.50, assuming no extraordinary developments.

How to Trade XRP/USDT on Phemex

Phemex offers XRP/USDT futures trading with up to 75x leverage, professional charting, and deep liquidity.

For directional traders: XRP's high-beta nature means it moves faster than Bitcoin in both directions. Futures let you trade that volatility on both sides. Use the XRP/USDT futures pair with strict stop-losses, because XRP can swing 10%+ in a single session during catalyst-driven moves.

For range traders: XRP is consolidating between $1.40 and $1.97. Phemex Trading Bots can automate grid strategies within defined ranges, capturing profit from the chop without requiring constant screen time.

For passive positioning: If you are waiting for a clearer directional move, park idle USDT in Phemex Earn to generate yield while you watch for entry signals.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is XRP a good buy at $1.50?

At $1.50, XRP trades 59% below its July 2025 high while the fundamental backdrop is arguably the strongest it has ever been: SEC case resolved, ETFs live, $4 billion in institutional acquisitions. The risk is that improving fundamentals have not yet translated into sustained price appreciation. If you believe Ripple's banking strategy will eventually drive real XRP utility, current levels offer a favorable risk/reward. If you think the token is secondary to Ripple's business, the price may stay range-bound.

How is XRP different from other cryptocurrencies?

XRP settles transactions in 3 to 5 seconds at a cost of roughly $0.0002, compared to Bitcoin's 10+ minutes and higher fees. It uses a Federated Consensus mechanism instead of proof-of-work or proof-of-stake. The key difference, though, is corporate structure: Ripple holds a massive XRP position and actively manages supply through escrow, making XRP more centrally influenced than most major tokens.

What will happen to XRP if Ripple gets its bank charter?

A full OCC bank charter would give Ripple direct Federal Reserve access for RLUSD reserves and settlement. This would be the single most legitimizing event for XRP since the SEC case resolution. Historically, XRP prices spike on regulatory milestones, and a bank charter would remove one of the last barriers to full institutional adoption.

Bottom Line

XRP in February 2026 is a bet on execution. The legal overhang is gone, the ETF infrastructure exists, and Ripple has spent $4 billion assembling the institutional stack. The missing piece is proof that all of this actually drives XRP token demand rather than just Ripple the company's revenue.

At $1.50, the market is pricing in significant doubt. That doubt is reasonable given the 40% ODL adoption rate, the escrow supply overhang, and the six-month price decline despite positive headlines. But if Ripple's bank charter comes through and ETF inflows continue compressing liquid supply, the setup for a reversal is there.

Trade it with defined risk. Use Phemex futures if you want leverage exposure, or spot if you prefer to hold through volatility. Either way, size for the possibility that XRP can move 20%+ in either direction on a single catalyst.

This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of your entire investment. XRP's price is highly volatile and influenced by factors outside any individual's control. Always conduct your own research before trading.