Netflix Stock Price Analysis and Five Straight Post-Earnings Drops Before 20 October

Netflix posts its third-quarter results on Tuesday 20 October 2026, and its stock has fallen in the session after each of its five reports since July 2025. This Netflix stock price analysis starts from the $71.145 close of Friday 25 September, which left the stock under both its 50-day and 200-day averages.

The five drops ran from 2.18% on 21 January 2026 to 10.07% on 22 October 2025, and each followed results posted about a minute after the Nasdaq close. Across the seven reports since January 2025, the first session after a report moved 6.51% on average in one direction or the other. The other 426 sessions in that window averaged a 1.46% move.

What Does This Netflix Stock Price Analysis Show on the Chart?

On Nasdaq sessions, Netflix closed on 25 September 5.81% under its 50-day average of 75.537 and 16.02% under its 200-day average of 84.713. The 50-day itself runs 10.83% below the 200-day, so the price and both averages line up in downtrend order.

That order dates from 5 December 2025, when the 50-day crossed under the 200-day on the day Netflix announced its deal for Warner Bros. It was the first cross of either kind since a golden cross on 23 November 2022. The 50-day has stayed below the 200-day in all 202 sessions from 5 December to 25 September. If you want the mechanics, the Phemex Academy guide to the golden cross and death cross sets out how the two signals differ.

Netflix hasn't closed above its 200-day average in 112 straight sessions. The last close above it came on 16 April 2026 at $107.79, the day of the first-quarter report and the highest close of 2026. The session after that report fell 9.72%.

Netflix is down 24.12% in 2026 from its $93.76 close on 31 December 2025, and it's 10.89% below its 27 August close, 20 sessions earlier. Friday's close stands 46.87% under the $133.913 record of 30 June 2025, the highest close in ten years of Nasdaq data. Each of those figures is a session close, and the Academy's guide on how to trade with the moving average shows you how those closes become the averages above.

How Has Netflix Stock Moved After Earnings Since 2025?

Method: report dates come from Netflix's investor relations event feed, and every report in the window posted at about the Nasdaq close or a minute after it. Each move is the next session's close against the report day's close, on Nasdaq split-adjusted closes from 2 January 2025 to 25 September 2026, which gives 433 session moves.

The first two rows bound the streak. Netflix rose 9.69% after its fourth-quarter 2024 report and 1.53% after the first-quarter 2025 report. That second reaction landed on Monday 21 April 2025, since Good Friday closed the market on 18 April. A lower close has followed every report since, and the five drops average 6.87%.

Size is the other half of the record. Four of the seven reaction sessions rank in the top seven of the 433 by size, three of them in the top four. The largest of all, a 13.77% gain on 27 February 2026, followed no report.

The opening gap matters more if you hold a position through the release. In all three 2026 drops the stock opened lower than it closed, and July's reaction opened 11.93% down before it recovered to close 7.26% down. A perp holder met that gap overnight, hours before the regular Nasdaq session opened.

What Else Happened to NFLX Stock Between the Reports?

The largest move of the 433 sessions came as the contest for Warner Bros. ended. On 5 December 2025 Netflix announced a deal to acquire the studios along with HBO Max and HBO for $27.75 per WBD share, an enterprise value of $82.7 billion. The stock closed that session 2.89% lower, at $100.24.

On 20 January 2026, the day of Netflix's fourth-quarter report, Netflix and WBD announced they had amended the agreement to an all-cash deal. On 26 February, after WBD's board judged a rival proposal from Paramount Skydance superior, Netflix declined to raise its offer and said it would resume share repurchases. The next session closed 13.77% higher at $96.24.

The Netflix stock split explains why these prices look small next to older quotes. Netflix announced a ten-for-one spliton 30 October 2025. Its 8-K of 14 November says the split took effect at 16:01 Eastern time that day, with split-adjusted trading expected from the open on 17 November. All of the prices on this page are split-adjusted, so a pre-split quote for NFLX stock reads ten times higher.

When Is the Netflix Earnings Date for the Third Quarter?

The next Netflix earnings date is Tuesday 20 October 2026. Netflix said on 14 September that it will post the results at about 13:01 Pacific time, which is 20:01 UTC and one minute after the Nasdaq close. The live interview with management follows at 13:45 Pacific time, or 20:45 UTC. If you trade the stock itself, your first regular session to react is Wednesday 21 October at 13:30 UTC, about 17 and a half hours after the numbers land.

The only NFLX stock forecast in this analysis is Netflix's own, from its 16 July shareholder letter. Netflix forecast third-quarter revenue of $12.86 billion, up 11.7% on the year, and diluted earnings of $0.82 a share. It put the operating margin at 33.2%, against 28.2% in the third quarter of 2025. For the full year it narrowed revenue guidance to $51.0 billion to $51.4 billion and kept its 31.5% operating margin forecast.

The same letter said second-quarter revenue of $12.56 billion and a 33.4% operating margin were in line with Netflix's guidance. The stock closed 7.26% lower the next session.

Phemex's NFLX perp keeps quoting through those 17 and a half hours, and the blog on why TradFi assets can be traded 24/7 as futures explains the market structure behind it.

How Does the NFLX Perp Trade Through a Netflix Report?

Phemex listed the NFLX perpetual on 10 June 2026 with leverage of up to 10x, and it settles funding every eight hours at 00:00, 08:00 and 16:00 UTC. It's a contract of the kind described in the explainer on what TradFi futures are, and the 16 July report was the first it traded through.

Netflix posted its second-quarter results at about 20:01 UTC on 16 July. In that first minute the perp traded down to 71.73, and by 20:03 it had spiked to 76.92. It then slid to 67.50 by 20:22, 9.35% under the 74.46 it traded at when the 20:00 minute opened. The perp closed the UTC day at 67.69, 8.96% under that afternoon's Nasdaq close of 74.35. The regular Nasdaq session didn't open until 13:30 UTC on 17 July, and NFLX opened at 65.48.

At the 10x maximum, the 3.30% spike was worth 33% of the initial margin on a short opened at 74.46. The 9.35% slide that followed was worth 93.5% of the margin on a long opened at the same price. If you hold NFLX through 20 October, you're holding through the kind of window that produced both swings inside 22 minutes.

Funding is the other clock you run on as a perp holder. Two stamps, at 00:00 and 08:00 UTC, fall between a 20:01 UTC release and the next Nasdaq open. Phemex's funding-rate history shows a rate of zero on all 99 stamps from 25 August to 26 September, a reading that can change at any stamp.

For the weekend side of the same effect, the Academy guide on which TradFi perpetuals move while the US market is closed measured one long closure hour by hour.

What Would Break the Post-Earnings Streak on 21 October?

The streak breaks on a single print, a 21 October close above the 20 October close.

Above the price, the 50-day average stood at 75.537 on 25 September, 6.17% over Friday's close. The stock last closed above it on 16 September at $76.41, seven sessions before Friday. The 200-day stood at 84.713, 19.07% above Friday's close. Both averages move every session, so their values on 20 October will differ from these.

Below the price, the 52-week closing low of $67.60 from 20 July 2026 stands 4.98% under Friday's close. Four of the five post-earnings drops were larger than that gap. The intraday low of $65.08 came on 17 July, the session after the second-quarter report.

A higher close on 21 October that also clears the 50-day would break the streak and the chart pattern together. It would be the first report session to close higher since 21 April 2025.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the next Netflix earnings date and time?

Tuesday 20 October 2026, with results at about 13:01 Pacific time and the live interview 44 minutes later. Netflix says a recording will be available at about 14:30 Pacific time, or 21:30 UTC. The interview runs on its investor relations YouTube channel with co-CEOs Greg Peters and Ted Sarandos and CFO Spence Neumann.

When did the Netflix stock split take effect for shareholders?

The record date was 10 November 2025, and holders received nine additional shares for each share after the close on 14 November. Netflix said the split would reset the price to a range more accessible to employees in its stock option program. The same amendment raised authorized shares from 4.99 billion to 49.9 billion.

Did Netflix stock always fall after earnings before the streak?

A higher close followed each of the three reports before the streak, the largest an 11.09% gain on 18 October 2024 after the third-quarter 2024 report.

Bottom Line

Five sessions have taken more out of Netflix stock than the other 307 combined since its record close. From $133.913 on 30 June 2025 to Friday's $71.145, the sessions after its five reports compound to a 30.10% loss. The other 307 sessions, taken together, compound to a 23.99% loss. So if you're holding NFLX, the risk that matters most arrives on the night of 20 October, and the regular Nasdaq session can't answer it until the 21st.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.