Natural gas futures on Phemex topped at 3.024 on 3 September and again on 8 September, then closed Friday 11 September at 2.946 without getting through. The date that decides this natural gas price analysis is Thursday 17 September, when the EIA weekly natural gas storage report lands at 10:30 ET.
EIA's 10 September report put working gas in storage at 3,254 Bcf on 4 September, which is 148 Bcf above the five-year average. The Federal Reserve's rate decision lands on 16 September, the day before the next storage count. Between the Friday closes of 4 and 11 September the perp moved from 2.945 to 2.946, so two failed pushes left it where it began.
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Item
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Value
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Anchor close
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2.946 USDT on the Phemex NGUSDT daily bar, Friday 11 September 2026
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Moving averages
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Above the 50-session average of 2.869, below the 100-session average of 2.986
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The level
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3.024, the high on 3 and 8 September, with support at 2.839 to 2.845
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US storage
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3,254 Bcf on 4 September, 148 Bcf above the five-year average (EIA)
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Next catalyst
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EIA storage report, Thursday 17 September, 10:30 ET
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Phemex contract
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NG-USDT perpetual, 10x maximum leverage, funding every 4 hours
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Why Did Natural Gas Stall Twice at $3.02?
The first push came on Wednesday 2 September, when the perp closed at 3.010, its only daily close above 3.00 since 8 July. On Thursday 3 September it printed a high of 3.024 and gave the move back inside the same bar, closing at 2.927. The second attempt came on Tuesday 8 September, when the perp opened at 2.986 and ran to the same 3.024 high before closing at 2.931. It fell on Wednesday 9 September to a low of 2.858 and closed at 2.864, its weakest close of the month. Two highs at the same tick three sessions apart make a double top on the daily chart, and the perp hadn't traded at 3.024 or higher since 9 July.
Turnover changed underneath the price. The 9 September bar carried 3.68 million USDT of turnover against 88,784 USDT on 7 September, and it held above one million on 10 and 11 September. I found no cause for that jump, so I don't read it as buying or selling pressure.
NG trades on Phemex alongside the crypto pairs, and our guide to Bitcoin as a commodity and how to trade commodities covers how those markets sit next to crypto.
What Does the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report Show?
The EIA natural gas storage report of 10 September counted 3,254 Bcf of working gas in the Lower 48 on Friday 4 September, up 40 Bcf on the week. That stock ran 148 Bcf, or 4.8%, above the 2021-2025 average of 3,106 Bcf and 79 Bcf below the 3,333 Bcf held a year earlier.
The regional split tells you more than the total. South Central, the largest region in the table, drew 7 Bcf in the week to 4 September while the East added 20 Bcf and the Midwest 18 Bcf. Salt-cavern storage in South Central fell 11 Bcf and stood 3.8% below its five-year average, the only line in the table under that benchmark.
EIA publishes the report at 10:30 ET on Thursdays, so the 17 September release reaches you at 14:30 UTC. Its release schedule for the weekly report lists no September exception, which puts the storage count one day after the Fed decision that closes the 15-16 September meeting.
What Is EIA's Natural Gas Price Forecast for 2026?
EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook of 9 September puts the Henry Hub natural gas price at an average of $3.43 per million Btu for 2026. The same table shows $3.53 for 2025 and $3.28 for 2027. That natural gas price forecast leans on January, when EIA's daily Henry Hub spot series printed $30.72 in the week of 19 January, so the full-year figure says little about September.
Supply is the reason EIA expects storage to stay heavy. It forecasts marketed production growth of 4.5 Bcf per day in 2026 and 4.6 Bcf per day in 2027, with the Permian and Haynesville regions supplying more than 70% of that growth. Haynesville alone adds 1.4 Bcf per day in 2026, and EIA puts working inventories at 3,969 Bcf on 31 October, 5% above the five-year average.
On the demand side, EIA sees LNG exports averaging 17.4 Bcf per day in 2026 and 18.6 in 2027, up from 15.1 in 2025. Most Permian gas comes out of the ground with crude oil, so gas supply there moves with oil drilling, a chain our explainer on how oil prices tie into inflation and Bitcoin follows from the oil side.
How Does the Henry Hub Price Compare With Natural Gas Futures on Phemex?
Henry Hub spot traded between 2.88 and 2.95 across the five sessions from 31 August to 4 September, according to EIA's daily Henry Hub spot price table. The first two prints for the week of 7 September were 2.90 and 2.81, and EIA's next update of that table comes on 16 September.
The Phemex perp closed Friday 11 September at 2.946 and its index at 2.933, both above the two spot prints for that week. That gap fits an index built on futures prices, since futures tend to price above spot when storage runs heavy into winter. Phemex publishes no composition or roll schedule for its NG index, so the reading is consistent with a futures-based index and not proven.
A perpetual has no expiry, so nothing forces NG on Phemex to meet Henry Hub on a delivery date, the difference that how perpetual and quarterly futures settle lays out.
The Levels in This Natural Gas Price Analysis
Method: I used the Phemex NGUSDT daily UTC bars and counted weekday bars only, because weekend bars aren't trading sessions for the underlying market. That leaves 125 sessions from the 23 March listing to 11 September, too few for a 200-session average.
The 50-session average stood at 2.869 on 11 September with the perp above it, and the 100-session average stood at 2.986 with the perp below it. Counting weekend bars drags the 50-bar figure down to 2.827, which is why the session count matters when you read these lines.
Resistance is 3.024, the double high of 3 and 8 September, with the 100-session average 0.038 under it. Support runs from the 31 August swing low of 2.839 to the 10 September low of 2.845, and the 50-session average at 2.869 guards the top of that shelf.
The full range since listing runs from 2.601 on 30 April to 3.40 on 1 June, so the Friday close of 2.946 is a shade under the 3.00 midpoint of that range.
How Do Natural Gas Futures Work on Phemex?
Phemex listed NG-USDT at 10:00 UTC on 23 March 2026 as a perpetual with 10x maximum leverage, and each contract is worth one NG on the .NGUSDT index. Funding settles every four hours, per the contract's fundingInterval field of 14,400 seconds, and the description text on the same product record still says eight hours.
On a read at 17:10 UTC on 14 September the funding rate stood at 0.005% per interval and open interest at 549,075 contracts. A positive rate means longs paid shorts at that read. Both numbers move with every settlement, so treat them as a dated snapshot, and how funding rates work in crypto futures shows you how to read the rate.
The perp trades through the weekend while the underlying futures market is shut. Its Sunday UTC bar picks up the CME reopen at 22:00 UTC, the first hours of Monday's session, so this analysis anchors on the Friday 11 September close.
What Would Break the View on Natural Gas?
A weekday close above 3.024 breaks the ceiling, and the perp last closed above that level on 8 July at 3.200. A close below 2.839 breaks the support shelf and opens the way toward 2.624, the lowest weekday low since July, printed on 6 August.
At 10x, the 3.8% drop from 2.946 to 2.839 costs you 38% of posted margin before fees and funding. On 10 September, the day of the last storage report, the bar ran from a low of 2.845 to a high of 2.959 and closed up 3.2% at 2.957. A storage day can cover most of the distance to support in one session, and sizing for that move is the core of risk management in derivatives trading.
The Fed decides on 16 September, the day before the storage report, so a hold from Tuesday into Thursday puts you through both events.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does EIA move the storage report in a holiday week?
In 2026 the schedule lists two changes, a Friday 13 November release at 10:30 ET for Veterans Day and a Wednesday 25 November release at 12:00 ET for Thanksgiving.
How much of US power generation runs on natural gas?
EIA's September outlook puts natural gas at 40% of US electricity generation in 2026 and 2027, down from 42% in 2024.
Which storage region runs furthest above its five-year average?
The Pacific region held 290 Bcf on 4 September, 10.3% above its five-year average and the widest gap of the five regions in EIA's table.
Bottom Line
The ceiling at 3.024 has held twice with storage 4.8% above its five-year average, and EIA's own forecast keeps a 5% surplus through 31 October. So the burden sits with buyers, who need the 17 September count to show the surplus shrinking and then a weekday close above 3.024 to confirm it. Until both happen the double top is the working read, and the line on the other side is 2.839, which is 6.5% below the ceiling.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
