Ethereum spot ETFs have seen significant inflows of $633 million over the past 10 days, signaling strong investor interest. However, the prediction market remains skeptical about Ethereum reaching $10,000 by December 31, 2026, with the Polymarket contract price holding steady at a 4% probability. Despite the substantial capital inflows, traders appear to be awaiting further catalysts before adjusting their expectations. The prediction market's low trading volume, with only $28 in actual USDC traded daily, indicates limited confidence in Ethereum's long-term price surge. A single large trade could significantly impact market odds, as it requires $1,029 to shift probabilities by 5 percentage points. While the ETF inflows are a positive sign, traders are looking for additional developments, such as regulatory clarity or technological upgrades, to reassess Ethereum's potential to reach the $10,000 mark.