Following the release of PCE data, CME FedWatch indicates a 52.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its October meeting. The tool shows a 47.1% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike for the same period.
Looking ahead to December, markets are pricing in a significantly higher likelihood of tightening. There is only a 10% probability of rates remaining unchanged through year-end, with a 51.8% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike and a 38.2% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase.
CME FedWatch: 52.9% Chance Fed Holds Rates in October After PCE Data
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