Anthropic has released a comprehensive analysis of the evolving AI competition between the United States and China, projecting critical developments by 2028. The report emphasizes that the competition is shifting from model capabilities to a broader systemic rivalry, with the U.S. currently holding advantages in advanced chips, model capabilities, and capital investment. However, Chinese AI labs are rapidly closing the gap through talent, data, and engineering efficiency. Anthropic outlines two potential scenarios for 2028. In the first, the U.S. maintains its lead by tightening export controls on advanced chips and restricting technology spillovers, thereby shaping global AI governance frameworks. In the second scenario, insufficient U.S. action allows China to catch up, potentially surpassing the U.S. in some areas, leading to a contested global AI landscape. The report underscores the urgency for the U.S. to act decisively to secure its leadership in AI capabilities and governance.