AllianceDAO co-founder QwQiao stated that Anthropic's target IPO valuation should be reduced by 50% when accounting for extreme AI outcome probabilities. He argued that investors must factor in both "boom" and "doom" scenarios where money becomes irrelevant due to either infinite abundance or human extinction. QwQiao assigned a combined 50% probability to these extreme outcomes, leaving only the remaining 50% "boring middle" scenario where humans continue working and monetary value persists. Based on this framework, he concluded that current target prices for Anthropic must be cut in half since financial valuation only matters in half of all potential futures.