Wintermute, a prominent cryptocurrency market maker, anticipates an improvement in market liquidity in the first quarter of 2026, driven by policy and interest rate expectations rather than internal crypto liquidity. Recent market declines were attributed to the repricing of expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, rather than fundamental issues. The analysis suggests that the sell-off, typically seasonal from Q4 to Q1, occurred earlier this year due to expectations of weaker performance in the coming year, accelerating risk aversion. Despite short-term interest rate impacts, the global macroeconomic environment remains stable, with easing policies in Japan and China, and the US ending its quantitative easing program next month. Wintermute views the recent Bitcoin decline as a macro-driven adjustment, with future market recovery likely tied to policy shifts and interest rate expectations.