A whale investor has incurred a $345,000 loss after betting $527,000 on a prediction market contract that the Iranian regime would collapse by June 30, 2026. The stringent criteria for a "Yes" outcome require the dissolution or fundamental replacement of Iran's ruling system, including the Supreme Leader's Office and the Revolutionary Guards. Previous bets by the same investor, totaling $324,000 on similar geopolitical events, also failed to materialize.