US Senator Chris Murphy has announced plans to introduce legislation aimed at banning prediction markets, which he describes as "corrupt and destabilizing." Murphy argues that these platforms allow insiders with advanced knowledge of geopolitical events to exploit them for personal gain. His concerns were highlighted by a screenshot of Polymarket betting odds related to military strikes involving Israel and Gaza, which shifted amid escalating tensions.
Industry experts, however, challenge Murphy's proposal, noting that it conflates regulated domestic exchanges with offshore platforms already barred by the US. Tarek Mansour, co-founder of the regulated prediction market Kalshi, emphasized that domestic markets are prohibited from listing war-related contracts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) enforces strict regulations to prevent such activities. Critics argue that Murphy's proposal unfairly targets domestic exchanges that comply with federal oversight, while offshore platforms face aggressive enforcement actions.
Murphy's legislative efforts align with broader regulatory measures to curb insider trading in prediction markets. In January, U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres introduced a bill to prevent government officials from trading in these markets using nonpublic information.
US Senator Proposes Ban on Prediction Markets Over Insider Risks
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