The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4% despite market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10. Since the Fed's initial rate cut in September 2024, the yield has increased by 50 basis points, influenced by concerns over fiscal debt, inflation, and a higher bond supply. Additionally, expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike and rising Japanese Government Bond yields are exerting upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the dollar index shows reduced sensitivity to rate-cut expectations, bolstered by the robust U.S. economy.