Uniswap founder Hayden Adams has highlighted significant pricing discrepancies between prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket regarding the event of "the U.S. acquiring Greenland." On the X platform, Adams noted that Kalshi prices this event at approximately 42%, while Polymarket's pricing ranges from 15% to 23%.
Adams explained that these discrepancies are not due to differences in user demographics but are attributed to the distinct betting targets of each platform. For instance, Polymarket is pricing the probability of the event occurring "by 2026," whereas Kalshi is considering the probability "during Trump's entire term." Additionally, variations in question phrasing, settlement conditions, oracle design, and risk pricing logic contribute to the differing prices.
Uniswap Founder Highlights Prediction Market Pricing Discrepancies
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