Bitcoin's price, currently at $93,472, is influenced by a mix of macroeconomic trends and market-specific events as 2026 begins, according to Jim Ferraioli, director of crypto research at Schwab Center for Financial Research. Long-term factors include global M2 money supply, Bitcoin's disinflationary supply growth, and adoption, while short-term drivers involve market risk sentiment, interest rates, and U.S. dollar strength. Ferraioli notes that a "risk-on" environment in equities and supportive monetary policy could benefit Bitcoin, with expectations of lower rates and a weaker dollar. However, potential headwinds such as slowed adoption following late-2025 volatility and the historical impact of the halving cycle could limit gains. Ferraioli highlights that the third year of the halving cycle has traditionally been challenging for Bitcoin, potentially affecting prices. Despite expectations for a positive year, returns may not reach the historical average of 70% gains from annual lows. Additionally, Bitcoin's correlation with traditional assets is expected to decrease, although it remains linked to megacap AI stocks.