Bitcoin continues to trade within a defined range, hovering in the $80,000s as of December 31, despite expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and cooling U.S. inflation. The cryptocurrency's price action remains constrained, with traders focusing more on real yields, money-market dynamics, and spot ETF flows rather than macroeconomic headlines. Recent inflation data showed a 2.7% year-over-year increase in headline CPI for November, but data collection issues have led markets to treat this as confirmation rather than new information.
The Federal Reserve's current target range of 3.50–3.75% and projections for future rate cuts have not been sufficient to lift Bitcoin out of its trading range. Real yields, particularly the 10-year TIPS real yield at around 1.90%, continue to exert pressure, limiting the impact of nominal policy easing. Additionally, liquidity conditions remain complex, with record usage of the New York Fed’s Standing Repo Facility and significant reverse repo balances.
ETF flows have also influenced Bitcoin's price response, with approximately $3.4 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since November 4. This has muted the impact of positive macro news, as weak demand and net selling dominate. Bitcoin's current support and resistance levels are around $81,000 and $93,000, respectively, indicating a range-driven market as traders await clearer signals from macroeconomic and liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin Remains Range-Bound Despite Fed Rate Cut Expectations
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