The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown has risen sharply to 74% on the prediction market Polymarket, following Democratic opposition to a funding bill that includes the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). This increase comes after recent incidents involving Border Patrol agents in Minnesota. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has stated he will not support the appropriations bill if it includes DHS funding, citing concerns over ICE enforcement actions. The prediction market, with nearly $7 million in liquidity, indicates a high probability of a shutdown by January 31, 2026, unless an agreement is reached. Schumer has called for the DHS funding bill to be separated and reworked, emphasizing the need for more time to address the issues. The market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the deadline.