Polymarket has adjusted its forecast, indicating a 40% chance of a U.S. government shutdown this Saturday, reflecting a significant decrease of 29% in daily probability. This update comes as U.S. President Trump and Senate Minority Leader Schumer make progress in negotiations to avert the shutdown. Key proposals include separating Department of Homeland Security funding from the main appropriations bill, while ensuring other critical funding bills pass before the Friday midnight deadline. To prevent service disruptions, Congress is considering short-term continuing appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security. These measures aim to provide additional time for drafting comprehensive legislation, contributing to the positive shift in market forecasts.