Polymarket has introduced a prediction market focused on the potential extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. As of now, the probability of an extension by April 21 stands at 15%, reflecting a 12% decrease over the past week. Conversely, the likelihood of an extension by April 26 has surged to 78%, marking a 40% increase. The total amount wagered on this event is approximately $36,000. The market will resolve as "Yes" if the ceasefire, initially announced on April 16, 2026, is officially extended. This requires a public and mutual agreement to continue the cessation of hostilities beyond the initial 10-day period. The resolution will rely on official statements from both parties or a consensus in credible media reports confirming the extension.