ICP and NEAR Lead Crypto Gains as Fed Uncertainty and China CPI Loom

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve's cautious stance and divided outlook on rate cuts have heightened volatility and subdued risk appetite in crypto markets. Ongoing US government shutdown delays key economic data, increasing uncertainty and lowering trading volumes. Regulatory debates over stablecoin yields and India's push for comprehensive crypto regulation are shaping the global policy landscape.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw a mixed trend in the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin under pressure from ETF outflows and weak spot demand, while Ethereum showed resilience due to strong staking inflows and DeFi activity. Internet Computer (ICP) surged 17.9% on protocol upgrades and AI narrative, NEAR Protocol gained 13.3% on ecosystem growth, and Mantle rose 6.2% amid DeFi launches. Altcoins overall showed sector rotation, with AI and Web3 infrastructure tokens outperforming.

Today's Outlook

China will release CPI and PPI data today, offering critical insights into inflation and production costs that could impact global risk sentiment. Additionally, EVAA community token unlocks are scheduled following security audits, potentially affecting token liquidity and short-term price dynamics.

Fear and Greed Index

78.00% Annual Percentile

25 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.43T

0.95%

Total Market Trading Volume

$136.69B

38.75%

Altcoin Season Index

36.36%

Quarterly Percentile

28 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.24B

0.18%

Futures

855.17B

8.15%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%-4.00%, with officials divided on further cuts as inflation remains above target and labor market data is mixed. This cautious stance has led to subdued risk appetite and increased volatility in crypto markets.

Deutsche Bank forecasts the Fed will resume balance sheet expansion in Q1 2026, signaling a shift to more accommodative monetary policy. Anticipation of renewed liquidity injections is supporting sentiment for Bitcoin and other digital assets.

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, creating uncertainty for investors and policymakers. This data blackout has contributed to lower trading volumes and increased volatility in the crypto market.

Recent U.S. fiscal tightening and Treasury General Account buildup have caused a liquidity crunch, driving crypto loans to a record $73.6 billion in Q3 2025. Analysts expect that government reopening and increased Treasury spending will restore liquidity, potentially benefiting high-beta crypto assets.

The Bank of England kept its policy rate at 4% but signaled a dovish shift, with four out of nine members supporting a rate cut. This divergence from the ECB's steady stance has led to currency volatility, impacting cross-border crypto flows and DeFi liquidity.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

21Shares has filed for a spot XRP ETF with the SEC, triggering a 20-day review window; if unchallenged, the ETF could launch by November 27, potentially boosting XRP liquidity and institutional adoption.

Ripple and the SEC have officially ended their five-year lawsuit, providing regulatory clarity for XRP and allowing Ripple to focus on expansion, which may restore investor confidence in the token.

The U.S. Treasury faces industry division over stablecoin interest rules under the GENIUS Act, with banks pushing for a blanket ban on stablecoin yields and Coinbase advocating for more flexible regulations; the outcome will shape the future of stablecoin products in the U.S.

India's Supreme Court has rejected a crypto ban and called for comprehensive regulation, increasing pressure on lawmakers to establish clear guidelines, which could foster safer adoption and innovation in India's digital economy.

The U.S. government shutdown has stalled progress on key crypto legislation, including the CLARITY Act, delaying regulatory clarity and impacting market sentiment due to increased uncertainty.

Internet Computer (ICP): ICP surged 17.9% in the past 24 hours, driven by a sharp increase in trading volume to $1.69B and renewed interest in its decentralized AI and Web3 infrastructure, as well as recent protocol upgrades.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR): NEAR gained 13.3% over 24 hours, with daily volume reaching $1.34B. The rally is fueled by strong ecosystem growth, AI integration initiatives, and increased developer activity on its sharded Layer-1 blockchain.

Mantle (MNT): Mantle rose 6.2% in the last 24 hours, supported by $135.8M in trading volume. The price action is linked to ongoing ecosystem expansion, BitDAO migration, and new DeFi product launches on its Ethereum Layer-2 network.

Smart Money Movements

JPMorgan disclosed a $102 million investment in BitMine Immersion Technologies, acquiring 1,974,144 shares and gaining indirect exposure to over 3.24 million ETH held by BitMine.

Bitcoin whales who held BTC for over seven years intensified their sell-off, liquidating more than $500 million in assets, signaling a major shift in long-term holder behavior.

Trump-linked ABTC expanded its Bitcoin holdings by purchasing 139 BTC, increasing its total reserve to 4,004 BTC valued at approximately $401.6 million.

Tether increased its Bitcoin reserves by acquiring 961 BTC worth about $97 million, bringing its total holdings to 87,296 BTC, valued at roughly $8.9 billion.

The Winklevoss brothers transferred 250 BTC to Gemini's hot wallet, part of over 9,000 BTC moved from their custodial wallet in 2025, indicating potential sales activity.

Events to Watch

Nov 9 (Sun)

China will release CPI and PPI data, providing key insights into inflation and production costs; EVAA community token unlocks are scheduled after security audits.

Nov 10 (Mon)

Web Summit opens in Lisbon, featuring blockchain and Web3 topics; Yield Basis will unlock 430,640 YB tokens, about $239,694, representing 0.49% of market cap.

Nov 11 (Tue)

Mining Disrupt conference begins in Texas, focusing on energy economics and sustainable mining practices.

Nov 12 (Wed)

Kamino Season 4 token rewards will start unlocking, with a 6-month vesting period.

Nov 13 (Thu)

US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release October CPI data, a key indicator for global markets.

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