Fed Rate Cut, ETF Acceleration, and Major Token Unlocks Shape Crypto Market

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and dovish outlook have boosted risk appetite, supporting crypto and DEFI liquidity. China's deepening deflation and weak demand are dampening global risk sentiment and Asian CRYPTO activity. The US SEC's expedited crypto ETF approvals are set to drive institutional inflows and market integration.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw mild declines as BTC fell 1.4% to $115,688 and ETH dropped 3.0% to $4,471, pressured by ETF outflows and risk-off sentiment. Altcoins were mixed; ASTER rose 6.0% on mainnet news, while MYX plunged 19.2% and AVAX lost 4.1%. PAXG gained 1.1% as gold demand increased amid macro uncertainty.

Today's Outlook

Major token unlocks today include VELO (13.63% of supply) and KAITO (3.15%), potentially impacting liquidity and price volatility. Key AMAs and protocol updates from TRUST Wallet, SAGA, and FLOW may drive sector-specific sentiment. Monitor for increased volatility in affected tokens and DeFi protocols.

Fear and Greed Index

78.00% Annual Percentile

52 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$4.03T

1.88%

Total Market Trading Volume

$137.01B

18.69%

Altcoin Season Index

83.33%

Quarterly Percentile

74 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.91B

3.07%

Futures

881.71B

5.44%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25%, signaling two more cuts in 2025. This dovish shift has boosted risk appetite, supporting Bitcoin above $115,000 and increasing DeFi liquidity as borrowing costs fall.

The Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rate at 0.5%, with two board members dissenting in favor of a hike. The yen strengthened, but policy divergence with the Fed may drive volatility in crypto-forex pairs and impact BTC/JPY trading volumes.

The Bank of England held its base rate at 4% after UK CPI remained at 3.8% YoY. Stable policy supports GBP stability, but persistent inflation could limit capital flows into crypto assets from UK-based investors.

China's latest macro data show weakening domestic demand and deflationary pressure, with CPI at -0.4%. This slowdown is dampening global commodity demand and may reduce Asian crypto trading activity due to lower liquidity and risk appetite.

The Congressional Budget Office projects US GDP growth to slow to 1.4% in 2025, with inflation staying above target due to new tariffs. Slower growth and persistent inflation could increase crypto's appeal as a hedge against fiat currency risk.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The US SEC has implemented new generic listing standards for crypto ETFs, enabling faster approvals and broadening investor access to regulated digital asset products, which is expected to boost institutional inflows and market liquidity.

The US Treasury has opened a new public comment period on the GENIUS Act, seeking industry feedback on stablecoin regulation, signaling ongoing regulatory engagement and potential future compliance requirements for stablecoin issuers.

Senate Democrats have called for bipartisan cooperation on digital asset regulation, aiming to clarify agency roles and close oversight gaps, which could lead to a more stable and transparent US crypto market environment.

Hong Kong has showcased its new Stablecoin Ordinance, establishing a licensing regime for stablecoin issuers and reinforcing the city’s commitment to balancing financial innovation with investor protection in the digital asset sector.

The UK Financial Conduct Authority has launched a consultation on minimum standards for crypto firms, focusing on operational resilience and anti-financial crime measures, which may raise compliance costs but enhance consumer trust.

ASTER (ASTER): ASTER surged 40% in 24h to $0.87, hitting a new all-time high with $652M volume, driven by its mainnet launch and APX token conversion event.

MYX Finance (MYX): MYX rose 19% in 24h to $11.54, with $203M trading volume, as traders responded to high volatility and recent protocol upgrades across multiple chains.

PAX Gold (PAXG): PAXG gained 1.2% in 24h to $3,694, supported by $95M volume, as demand for tokenized gold rises amid global market uncertainty and new capital inflows.

Smart Money Movements

A whale purchased 18,000 ETH at $4,487, sold 10,000 ETH at $4,600, and bought another 16,569 ETH at $4,484, netting a $1.13 million profit in recent trades.

BitMine acquired an additional 15,427 ETH from Galaxy for $68.98 million, increasing its total Ethereum holdings to 2,141,445 ETH valued at $9.57 billion.

Arca acquired 7.212 million IMX tokens worth $6.16 million and 6.771 million ENA tokens worth $4.54 million from Flowdesk and Binance within the last six hours.

A whale deposited 15.1 million ENA tokens, valued at $10.09 million, into Binance, realizing a profit of $5.63 million after initially purchasing them for $4.5 million.

A transfer of 7,441 BTC worth approximately $860 million was executed from Coinbase to an unknown wallet, drawing attention due to the transaction's large size and anonymity.

Events to Watch

Sep 20 (Sat)

LayerZero will unlock 25.71 million ZRO tokens; TAU Chain IDO launches, running until Sep 22; major token unlocks for Optimism, FastToken, and LayerZero worth over $790M.

Sep 21 (Sun)

Optimism (OP) unlocks 6.89% of supply; final DAO vote on Stargate acquisition by LayerZero, with potential Wormhole bid revision.

Sep 23 (Tue)

Korea Blockchain Week 2025 begins in Seoul; US S&P preliminary manufacturing PMI and Eurozone composite PMI for September released; Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair Bowman to deliver remarks.

Sep 25 (Thu)

Plasma mainnet beta launches with $2B stablecoin liquidity and XPL token debut; Swiss National Bank rate decision; US Q2 GDP third estimate; US weekly initial jobless claims.

Sep 26 (Fri)

US core PCE price index and consumer spending data released; Japan Tokyo CPI and Canada final GDP for July published; University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (final) for September.

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