Crypto Market Surges: BTC, ETH Rally as Fed Turns Dovish; ZEC, MNT, ASTER Lead Gains

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve's 25bps rate cut signals a dovish shift, boosting crypto liquidity and risk appetite. The SEC and CFTC's joint roundtable marks stronger US regulatory coordination, enhancing institutional confidence. Poland's new strict crypto licensing law raises concerns over innovation outflow and reduced market participation.

Crypto Market

The crypto market rallied in the past 24h, with BTC up 2.44% to $112,141 and ETH rising 3.50% to $4,133.96, driven by dovish Fed signals and regulatory clarity. Zcash (ZEC) surged 17.22%, Mantle (MNT) gained 7.46%, and ASTER (ASTER) jumped 13.94%, all on strong volume and ecosystem momentum. DeFi and privacy coins led sector gains.

Today's Outlook

Today, the FTX Recovery Trust will distribute $1.6B to creditors, potentially increasing market liquidity and volatility. Major token unlocks for ENA ($126.78M), ORDER ($107.8M), BIGTIME ($16.07M), AVAX ($20.96M), and others may drive price swings in affected assets.

Fear and Greed Index

94.00% Annual Percentile

39 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.93T

1.62%

Total Market Trading Volume

$178.54B

58.65%

Altcoin Season Index

16.67%

Quarterly Percentile

65 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.48B

5.78%

Futures

1.10T

4.22%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling a dovish shift that could boost Bitcoin and DEFI liquidity as borrowing costs fall and risk appetite increases.

The Reserve Bank of India is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with markets split between a hold and a 25bps cut; any easing could support crypto inflows as INR weakens and domestic liquidity rises.

The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has surged to 79%, threatening delays in key economic data releases; this uncertainty may increase crypto market volatility as traders lose macro guidance.

The U.S. dollar weakened amid strong economic data and shutdown fears, leading to increased volatility in BTC/USD and ETH/USD pairs as traders reposition for potential Fed policy shifts.

India's rupee hit a record low ahead of the RBI decision, raising expectations for further monetary easing; a weaker INR could drive local demand for stablecoins and Bitcoin as a hedge against currency depreciation.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The SEC and CFTC held a joint roundtable, confirming enhanced regulatory coordination for digital assets, signaling a unified approach that boosts institutional confidence in the crypto sector.

The SEC requested issuers to withdraw 19b-4 filings for LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE ETFs, as new generic listing standards streamline ETF approvals, potentially accelerating market access for altcoin ETFs.

Turkey is set to expand its Financial Crimes Investigation Board's authority, enabling account freezes and blacklisting of crypto addresses, which may increase compliance costs and impact local trading activity.

Poland's parliament passed the Crypto Asset Market Act, introducing strict licensing and AML requirements for crypto service providers, raising concerns over innovation outflow and reduced market participation.

The SEC issued a No-Action Letter for DoubleZero's 2Z token, clarifying it is not a security, which sets a positive precedent for utility token projects and may encourage further blockchain innovation in the U.S.

Zcash (ZEC): ZEC surged over 8% in 24h with volume up 115%, reaching a nine-month high. The rally is driven by renewed interest in privacy coins and strong technical momentum, with daily trading volume exceeding $212M.

Lido DAO (LDO): LDO rose 7% in 24h as trading volume jumped 164% to $100M. The price increase is supported by ongoing governance proposals and high DeFi TVL, with $36B locked and growing institutional staking demand.

Mantle (MNT): MNT gained 7% in 24h, hitting a new all-time high of $1.95 before consolidating. The uptrend is fueled by Bybit integrations, increased ecosystem activity, and 24h trading volume of $378M.

Smart Money Movements

Ethereum whales accumulated 252,441 ETH worth $8.84 billion in three days, despite $795.56 million in ETF outflows.

LQWD Technologies acquired 14 BTC for $1.56 million at $111,307 per BTC, raising its total holdings to 252.5 BTC.

A suspected Bitmine address withdrew 25,369 ETH, valued at $107 million, from FalconX, indicating significant whale movement.

MicroStrategy (Strategy Inc.) purchased 196 BTC for $22.1 million at an average price of $113,048, bringing total holdings to 640,031 BTC.

Bhutan's government transferred 2,011 BTC worth $229.7 million to new wallets, highlighting sovereign-level crypto treasury activity.

Events to Watch

Sep 30 (Tue)

FTX Recovery Trust will distribute $1.6B to creditors; major token unlocks: ENA ($126.78M), ORDER ($107.8M), BIGTIME ($16.07M), AVAX ($20.96M), ASTER ($18.82M), TIA ($11.53M), ETHFI ($13.56M), Polkadot ($9.18M), TRUMP ($37.41M), Bittensor ($7.73M), ZETA ($7.41M), REZ ($5.07M), Plume, Impossible Finance, DeepBook, EigenCloud.

Oct 1 (Wed)

SUI unlocks $181.8M (largest of the week); EigenCloud unlocks $64.8M; Swarm Network launches $TRUTH token; TOKEN2049 Singapore, the world’s largest crypto event, begins.

Oct 2 (Thu)

SuiFest Singapore features Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary on institutional adoption; US Initial Jobless Claims data released; DoubleZero 2Z Token Generation Event.

Oct 3 (Fri)

US September Employment Situation Report and Nonfarm Payrolls released; Wormhole W 2.0 tokenomics launch; The Scaling Summit, a TOKEN2049 side event; Galactica and Evaa Protocol token generation events.

Oct 6 (Mon)

Forex Expo Dubai 2025 opens, gathering 150+ global FX and fintech leaders; Moonwalk Fitness token generation event.

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