Crypto Market Drops as BTC, ETH Slide; US Core PCE and BOJ Policy in Focus

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The US Senate confirmed pro-crypto leaders for the CFTC and FDIC, signaling a shift toward more supportive regulation. The Bank of Japan raised rates to a 30-year high, potentially reducing global liquidity and risk appetite. The SEC's interim guidance on crypto custody clarifies rules for broker-dealers, supporting institutional adoption.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with BTC down 4.43% to $97,474 and ETH dropping 9.27% to $3,144.86, pressured by weak spot demand and risk-off sentiment. Altcoins also fell, with XRP down 8.61%, ZEC down 3.97%, and BCH down 3.80%. LEO outperformed, rising 0.42%, while privacy coins like ZEC saw relative strength due to sector rotation and increased whale activity.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the release of the US Core PCE Price Index, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy press conference, and the Russian Central Bank's rate decision. Aethir (ATH) unlocks 15.71M tokens, and major legal actions such as Terraform's $4B lawsuit against Jump Trading and Coinbase's regulatory lawsuit may impact sentiment.

Fear and Greed Index

94.00% Annual Percentile

22 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.97T

0.80%

Total Market Trading Volume

$145.37B

18.68%

Altcoin Season Index

0.00%

Quarterly Percentile

17 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.90B

12.04%

Futures

786.29B

0.07%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, signaling a shift from ultra-loose monetary policy. This move may reduce global liquidity and risk appetite, potentially increasing volatility in crypto markets and impacting BTC and DeFi flows.

Federal Reserve's John Williams confirmed the Fed is not engaging in quantitative easing, maintaining a neutral monetary stance. This reduces expectations for additional USD liquidity, which could limit upside momentum for major cryptocurrencies and DeFi assets.

New York Fed President Williams stated November CPI was understated by 0.1% due to data issues. Underreported inflation may cause market mispricing, affecting crypto as traders reassess inflation hedges like BTC and stablecoins.

Gulf stock markets paused ahead of the U.S. CPI release, as the data will influence future Fed rate decisions. Higher-than-expected inflation could delay rate cuts, tightening global liquidity and pressuring crypto valuations.

Japan's central bank is expected to keep rates steady until at least June 2026, indicating a slow tightening cycle. This supports risk-on sentiment in crypto markets, as gradual policy shifts reduce the risk of sudden capital outflows.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The U.S. Senate has confirmed Mike Selig as CFTC Chairman and Travis Hill as FDIC Chairman, both known for crypto-friendly stances, signaling a shift toward more permissive U.S. crypto regulation and potentially boosting institutional confidence.

Poland's Sejm has passed the Crypto-Asset Market Act, aligning with the EU's MiCA framework and granting broad powers to the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, which may increase compliance costs but enhance market stability.

The SEC has issued interim guidance allowing broker-dealers to custody crypto asset securities via private keys, providing regulatory clarity and supporting the growth of tokenized assets, which could attract more institutional participation.

Coinbase Europe was fined €21.5 million by the Central Bank of Ireland for AML failures, highlighting stricter enforcement of anti-money laundering rules and prompting Coinbase to plan relocation to Luxembourg, impacting its European operations.

Taiwan seized over 210 BTC and 2,400 ETH in a fraud and money laundering probe, reflecting increased regulatory enforcement and alignment with international crypto compliance standards, which may deter illicit activity and support market integrity.

UNUS SED LEO (LEO): LEO surged 11.01% in 24h to $7.25 with $3.77M volume, but no specific news or event was identified as the driver for this move in the last 24 hours.

Zcash (ZEC): ZEC jumped 8.22% in 24h to $432.30, with $706.6M volume. The rally is attributed to a privacy coin sector rotation, with whale holdings up 21% and capital rotation cited by analysts (Yahoo Finance, 6h ago).

Bitcoin Cash (BCH): BCH rose 2.90% in 24h to $585.91, with $664.86M volume. Recent gains are linked to technical breakouts and increased trading activity, but no single major event was reported in the last 24 hours.

Smart Money Movements

A newly created wallet received 836.4 BTC worth $73.67 million from FalconX, marking a significant on-chain transfer in the Bitcoin market.

BlackRock deposited 36,579 ETH valued at $108.4 million into Coinbase, signaling renewed institutional interest and potential for further inflows.

A whale transferred over $313 million in USDC between unidentified wallets, raising concerns about potential scam activity in the stablecoin market.

Bitcoin whales accumulated 269,822 BTC valued at $23.3 billion over the past 30 days, the largest monthly purchase since 2011, despite a price drop.

Ark Invest acquired $10.56 million in BitMine Immersion Technologies stock and $4.15 million in Coinbase shares, reflecting a strategic shift toward crypto-related equities.

Events to Watch

Dec 19 (Fri)

USD Core PCE Price Index for October 2025 releases; Bank of Japan holds press conference on monetary policy; Russian Central Bank announces interest rate decision.

Dec 19 (Fri)

Aethir (ATH) unlocks 15.71M tokens (~$146,748); Terraform bankruptcy admin sues Jump Trading for $4B; Coinbase files lawsuit against three states over prediction market regulation.

Dec 23 (Tue)

US Q3 2025 GDP data releases, delayed report expected to impact market sentiment.

Dec 26 (Fri)

Over $23B in Bitcoin options contracts set to expire, representing more than half of Deribit open interest, likely to drive significant market volatility.

Table of Contents

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Crypto Market

Today's Outlook

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, signaling a shift from ultra-loose monetary policy. This move may reduce global liquidity and risk appetite, potentially increasing volatility in crypto markets and impacting BTC and DeFi flows.

Federal Reserve's John Williams confirmed the Fed is not engaging in quantitative easing, maintaining a neutral monetary stance. This reduces expectations for additional USD liquidity, which could limit upside momentum for major cryptocurrencies and DeFi assets.

New York Fed President Williams stated November CPI was understated by 0.1% due to data issues. Underreported inflation may cause market mispricing, affecting crypto as traders reassess inflation hedges like BTC and stablecoins.

Gulf stock markets paused ahead of the U.S. CPI release, as the data will influence future Fed rate decisions. Higher-than-expected inflation could delay rate cuts, tightening global liquidity and pressuring crypto valuations.

Japan's central bank is expected to keep rates steady until at least June 2026, indicating a slow tightening cycle. This supports risk-on sentiment in crypto markets, as gradual policy shifts reduce the risk of sudden capital outflows.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The U.S. Senate has confirmed Mike Selig as CFTC Chairman and Travis Hill as FDIC Chairman, both known for crypto-friendly stances, signaling a shift toward more permissive U.S. crypto regulation and potentially boosting institutional confidence.

Poland's Sejm has passed the Crypto-Asset Market Act, aligning with the EU's MiCA framework and granting broad powers to the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, which may increase compliance costs but enhance market stability.

The SEC has issued interim guidance allowing broker-dealers to custody crypto asset securities via private keys, providing regulatory clarity and supporting the growth of tokenized assets, which could attract more institutional participation.

Coinbase Europe was fined €21.5 million by the Central Bank of Ireland for AML failures, highlighting stricter enforcement of anti-money laundering rules and prompting Coinbase to plan relocation to Luxembourg, impacting its European operations.

Taiwan seized over 210 BTC and 2,400 ETH in a fraud and money laundering probe, reflecting increased regulatory enforcement and alignment with international crypto compliance standards, which may deter illicit activity and support market integrity.

Trending Tokens

UNUS SED LEO (LEO): LEO surged 11.01% in 24h to $7.25 with $3.77M volume, but no specific news or event was identified as the driver for this move in the last 24 hours.

Zcash (ZEC): ZEC jumped 8.22% in 24h to $432.30, with $706.6M volume. The rally is attributed to a privacy coin sector rotation, with whale holdings up 21% and capital rotation cited by analysts (Yahoo Finance, 6h ago).

Bitcoin Cash (BCH): BCH rose 2.90% in 24h to $585.91, with $664.86M volume. Recent gains are linked to technical breakouts and increased trading activity, but no single major event was reported in the last 24 hours.

Smart Money Movements

A newly created wallet received 836.4 BTC worth $73.67 million from FalconX, marking a significant on-chain transfer in the Bitcoin market.

BlackRock deposited 36,579 ETH valued at $108.4 million into Coinbase, signaling renewed institutional interest and potential for further inflows.

A whale transferred over $313 million in USDC between unidentified wallets, raising concerns about potential scam activity in the stablecoin market.

Bitcoin whales accumulated 269,822 BTC valued at $23.3 billion over the past 30 days, the largest monthly purchase since 2011, despite a price drop.

Ark Invest acquired $10.56 million in BitMine Immersion Technologies stock and $4.15 million in Coinbase shares, reflecting a strategic shift toward crypto-related equities.

Events to Watch

Dec 19 (Fri)

Dec 19 (Fri)

Dec 23 (Tue)

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