Crypto Market Drops as BTC, ETH Slide Ahead of FOMC Minutes, Major Token Unlocks

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

China will allow banks to pay interest on digital yuan from 2026, signaling a shift to a deposit-like CBDC. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged in January, supporting risk assets. The US dollar's weakness in 2025 has boosted global crypto inflows and DeFi activity.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 4.4% to $97,474, while Ethereum (ETH) dropped 9.3% to $3,144. Altcoins also retreated, with MYX down 13.6%, NIGHT down 4.5%, and H down 0.9%. The downturn was driven by continued ETF outflows, weak risk sentiment, and anticipation of major token unlocks.

Today's Outlook

Today, the Federal Reserve will release FOMC meeting minutes, providing key insights into recent rate cuts and future policy. Major token unlocks for HYPE ($309M), Hyperliquid ($251M), and RAIN ($76M) may impact market liquidity and sentiment.

Fear and Greed Index

82.00% Annual Percentile

30 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.95T

1.24%

Total Market Trading Volume

$116.23B

113.51%

Altcoin Season Index

72.73%

Quarterly Percentile

19 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

2.52B

12.76%

Futures

820.93B

19.12%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

China will allow banks to pay interest on digital yuan holdings starting January 1, 2026, marking a shift from digital cash to a deposit-like CBDC model. This policy is expected to boost e-CNY adoption, enhance liquidity management, and increase integration with the banking system, potentially impacting DeFi liquidity and stablecoin demand in Asia.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in January 2026, with an 83.9% probability according to CME FedWatch. Stable monetary policy may support risk assets, including Bitcoin and DeFi, by maintaining current liquidity conditions and reducing volatility in crypto markets.

The US dollar has weakened against major currencies in 2025 due to multiple Fed rate cuts and tariff policies. A weaker dollar typically supports Bitcoin and altcoin prices by making USD-denominated crypto assets more attractive to global investors and increasing DeFi inflows.

The European Central Bank has held its deposit rate steady at 2.00%, signaling a pause in further rate cuts. This policy divergence with the Fed supports euro strength, which may drive capital flows into euro-denominated crypto assets and affect cross-border DeFi activity.

Japan's Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75% in December and signaled further tightening in 2026. Higher Japanese rates could strengthen the yen, potentially reducing Japanese investor demand for crypto as a hedge, and may impact global DeFi and NFT trading volumes.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Australia's Federal Court ordered the liquidation of NGS Group and NGS Crypto for unlicensed operations, highlighting strict enforcement of crypto licensing and increased regulatory risk for investors.

South Korea's draft Digital Asset Basic Law introduces no-fault liability for service providers and mandates 100% trust-backed stablecoins, signaling tighter compliance and enhanced investor protection.

SEC Deputy Director Cicely LaMothe retires after shaping key crypto policies, including clarifying meme coin status and advancing ETF listing standards, impacting regulatory clarity and market structure.

Institutional trading desks are preparing for major macro and regulatory events in early 2026, including revisions to the Clarity Act and FOMC decisions, which may drive market volatility and compliance shifts.

The European Union's MiCA framework continues to provide regulatory clarity, while global regulators intensify anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing measures, supporting institutional confidence.

Midnight (NIGHT): NIGHT surged nearly 7% in the past 24 hours, driven by strong market attention as a Cardano-linked privacy project. Whale accumulation and recognition from Ripple CTO and Cardano founder have fueled its momentum.

Humanity Protocol (H): H rose 5.6% in 24 hours with $54M trading volume, supported by recent exchange listings and ongoing market recovery. The project’s decentralized identity narrative and previous Binance Alpha listing continue to attract investor interest.

MYX Finance (MYX): MYX gained 2.5% in the last 24 hours, maintaining top gainer status as derivatives volume and user activity increased. The protocol’s cross-chain upgrades and high ROI from token sales have strengthened its market position.

Smart Money Movements

Strategy acquired 1,229 BTC for $108.8 million between December 22 and 28, 2025, raising its total Bitcoin holdings to 672,497 BTC at an average cost of $74,997 per coin.

Bitmine purchased 44,463 ETH worth $130 million last week, increasing its total Ethereum holdings to 4,110,525 ETH, representing 3.41% of the total ETH supply.

A cryptocurrency wallet achieved a 2,560% return on Ethereum trading over two months, growing its balance from 5,000 USDC to $133,000 and accounting for $1.72 billion in ETHUSD taker volume last week.

Aave transferred $100.2 million USDT to an unknown wallet following a protocol update, raising concerns among DeFi observers about the nature of the transaction.

Senator David McCormick invested up to $1.6 million in the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in 2025, with at least $680,000 added in late November as part of his value investing strategy.

Events to Watch

Dec 30 (Tue)

The Federal Reserve will release FOMC meeting minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET, offering insights into recent rate cuts and future monetary policy.

Dec 30 (Tue)

Major token unlocks: $309M HYPE, $251.19M Hyperliquid, $76.56M RAIN; these large releases may impact market liquidity and sentiment.

Dec 30 (Tue)

Slash Vision Labs will unlock 242.47 million tokens ($7.24M); SVL will unlock 234.81 million tokens ($7.11M), increasing circulating supply.

Dec 31 (Wed)

Kamino (KMNO), Ethena (ENA), and Renzo (REZ) will unlock new token supplies, potentially affecting price volatility and market dynamics.

Jan 1 (Thu)

Sui will unlock 43.69 million SUI tokens as part of its monthly vesting; GPS will unlock 707.87 million tokens ($3.47M).

III. Phemex Market Focus

New Listings

Dec 29: (MAGMA/USDT)

Magma Finance (MAGMA) is now available for spot trading on Phemex. The MAGMA/USDT trading pair is live.

Dec 24: (LIT/USDT)

Phemex lists LITUSDT as a new Pre-Market futures trading pair with 20X leverage.

Table of Contents

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Crypto Market

Today's Outlook

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in January 2026, with an 83.9% probability according to CME FedWatch. Stable monetary policy may support risk assets, including Bitcoin and DeFi, by maintaining current liquidity conditions and reducing volatility in crypto markets.

The US dollar has weakened against major currencies in 2025 due to multiple Fed rate cuts and tariff policies. A weaker dollar typically supports Bitcoin and altcoin prices by making USD-denominated crypto assets more attractive to global investors and increasing DeFi inflows.

The European Central Bank has held its deposit rate steady at 2.00%, signaling a pause in further rate cuts. This policy divergence with the Fed supports euro strength, which may drive capital flows into euro-denominated crypto assets and affect cross-border DeFi activity.

Japan's Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75% in December and signaled further tightening in 2026. Higher Japanese rates could strengthen the yen, potentially reducing Japanese investor demand for crypto as a hedge, and may impact global DeFi and NFT trading volumes.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Australia's Federal Court ordered the liquidation of NGS Group and NGS Crypto for unlicensed operations, highlighting strict enforcement of crypto licensing and increased regulatory risk for investors.

South Korea's draft Digital Asset Basic Law introduces no-fault liability for service providers and mandates 100% trust-backed stablecoins, signaling tighter compliance and enhanced investor protection.

SEC Deputy Director Cicely LaMothe retires after shaping key crypto policies, including clarifying meme coin status and advancing ETF listing standards, impacting regulatory clarity and market structure.

Institutional trading desks are preparing for major macro and regulatory events in early 2026, including revisions to the Clarity Act and FOMC decisions, which may drive market volatility and compliance shifts.

The European Union's MiCA framework continues to provide regulatory clarity, while global regulators intensify anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing measures, supporting institutional confidence.

Trending Tokens

Midnight (NIGHT): NIGHT surged nearly 7% in the past 24 hours, driven by strong market attention as a Cardano-linked privacy project. Whale accumulation and recognition from Ripple CTO and Cardano founder have fueled its momentum.

Humanity Protocol (H): H rose 5.6% in 24 hours with $54M trading volume, supported by recent exchange listings and ongoing market recovery. The project’s decentralized identity narrative and previous Binance Alpha listing continue to attract investor interest.

MYX Finance (MYX): MYX gained 2.5% in the last 24 hours, maintaining top gainer status as derivatives volume and user activity increased. The protocol’s cross-chain upgrades and high ROI from token sales have strengthened its market position.

Smart Money Movements

Strategy acquired 1,229 BTC for $108.8 million between December 22 and 28, 2025, raising its total Bitcoin holdings to 672,497 BTC at an average cost of $74,997 per coin.

Bitmine purchased 44,463 ETH worth $130 million last week, increasing its total Ethereum holdings to 4,110,525 ETH, representing 3.41% of the total ETH supply.

A cryptocurrency wallet achieved a 2,560% return on Ethereum trading over two months, growing its balance from 5,000 USDC to $133,000 and accounting for $1.72 billion in ETHUSD taker volume last week.

Aave transferred $100.2 million USDT to an unknown wallet following a protocol update, raising concerns among DeFi observers about the nature of the transaction.

Senator David McCormick invested up to $1.6 million in the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) in 2025, with at least $680,000 added in late November as part of his value investing strategy.

Events to Watch

Dec 30 (Tue)

Dec 30 (Tue)

Dec 31 (Wed)

Jan 1 (Thu)

III. Phemex Market Focus

New Listings

Phemex Promotions