Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High as ETF Inflows and US Dollar Weakness Drive Rally

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Global stablecoin adoption is accelerating, with India and Nigeria advancing regulatory frameworks to balance innovation and stability. Tether's $200M tokenized gold initiative signals rising institutional demand for asset-backed digital assets. Ongoing US dollar depreciation is driving capital into Bitcoin and gold, reinforcing crypto's role as an inflation hedge.

Crypto Market

The crypto market is broadly bullish, led by Bitcoin hitting $123,168 (+0.62%) and Ethereum at $4,546.1 (+0.89%), both supported by strong ETF inflows and institutional demand. Altcoins show mixed trends; SPX6900 (+8.24%), Mantle (+7.97%), and Zcash (+6.87%) outperform, driven by meme coin momentum, ecosystem upgrades, and renewed privacy interest.

Today's Outlook

Today's key events include the release of US Non-Farm Payrolls, Initial Jobless Claims, and Unemployment Rate data for September, which will provide critical signals for global risk sentiment and crypto market volatility.

Fear and Greed Index

92.00% Annual Percentile

59 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$4.21T

0.66%

Total Market Trading Volume

$180.43B

4.17%

Altcoin Season Index

41.67%

Quarterly Percentile

63 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.32B

5.47%

Futures

1.09T

3.94%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

India's Finance Minister emphasized the need for global adaptation to stablecoins, highlighting their impact on cross-border payments and capital flows, which could accelerate crypto adoption and DeFi liquidity in emerging markets.

Tether announced a $200 million tokenized gold initiative, aiming to provide a stable, gold-backed digital asset, potentially increasing institutional demand for tokenized assets and influencing stablecoin market dynamics.

The US dollar's ongoing depreciation is driving capital into Bitcoin, gold, and equities, reinforcing BTC's role as an inflation hedge and supporting upward momentum in crypto asset prices.

Stablecoins have surpassed $300 billion in global market capitalization, with Ethereum, TRON, and Solana leading adoption, boosting on-chain liquidity and supporting higher trading volumes in DeFi and NFT markets.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The U.S. SEC's approval process for spot crypto ETFs, including XRP, SOL, and LTC, is paused due to the government shutdown, delaying new ETF launches and impacting institutional inflows.

Nigeria's central bank and SEC are drafting a new regulatory framework for digital assets, including taxation rules, aiming to balance innovation with consumer protection and market stability.

NYDIG analysts raised concerns over the transparency of reserve reports for USD1, a Trump-linked stablecoin, highlighting the need for stricter stablecoin reserve disclosure standards.

Hong Kong will launch a stablecoin pegged to the HKD, signaling increased regulatory engagement and institutional interest in digital assets across the Asia-Pacific region.

Nigerian SEC officials advocate for controlled adoption of stablecoins to protect markets and consumers, reflecting a cautious regulatory approach amid rising stablecoin use in Africa.

SPX6900 (SPX): SPX6900 surged 8.75% in 24h with $117.7M volume, driven by strong meme coin momentum and Solana ecosystem activity, reaching a $1.46B market cap.

Mantle (MNT): Mantle (MNT) rose 7.93% in 24h to $2.09, with $241M trading volume, as BitDAO completed a 1:1 migration and ecosystem expansion fueled investor demand.

Zcash (ZEC): Zcash (ZEC) jumped 6.36% in 24h to $150.71, with $707M volume, benefiting from renewed privacy coin interest and a 50%+ spike in daily trading activity.

Smart Money Movements

Trend Research transferred 145,000 ETH worth $654 million to Binance in three days, realizing a profit of $303 million and nearly depleting its on-chain ETH balance.

Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached $3.24 billion over the past week, with BlackRock's IBIT ETF absorbing $1.8 billion and Fidelity's FBTC $692 million, driving BTC to new all-time highs.

Ethereum ETF products saw $233.5 million in net inflows on October 3, with ETHA leading at $206.7 million, reflecting strong institutional demand for ETH exposure.

A whale shorting Bitcoin since March accumulated $28.08 million in floating losses, recently adding $4 million USDC to Hyperliquid and adjusting the liquidation price to $130,687.

A whale deposited $4 million USDC into Hyperliquid and purchased 58,778 HYPE tokens valued at $2.89 million, highlighting continued large-scale interest in the HYPE token.

Events to Watch

Oct 5 (Sun)

US Non-Farm Payrolls, Initial Jobless Claims, and Unemployment Rate for September will be released, providing key labor market signals.

Oct 10 (Fri)

US Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate data for September to be released; Aster Genesis Phase 2 airdrop query opens.

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