Most major institutions' predictions for Bitcoin's 2025 price, particularly aggressive targets in the $200,000 to $250,000 range, have not materialized. The primary reasons include high volatility, macroeconomic risks, and repeated disruptions from leverage and deleveraging cycles. In contrast, forecasts focusing on regulatory developments, compliance products, and structural industry evolution have proven more accurate in certain aspects. The 2025 market exhibited a pattern of "new highs—retracement—repricing," indicating that while long-term narratives may hold, they do not guarantee annual price targets. Changes in supply-side dynamics and regulatory frameworks are more verifiable.