Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the LakeBTC mining pool, expects the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and updated dot plot to trigger an initial market decline, followed by a rebound if Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers dovish signals. The Fed is scheduled to announce its decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, followed by Powell’s speech at 2:30 a.m. Jiang estimates a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike based on 30-day federal funds futures, which would lift the target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. He expects the dot plot to indicate two rate hikes in 2022, including one additional hike after this decision. His projected market path is “first down, then up,” with Bitcoin potentially falling below $75,000 before rebounding to $83,000-$84,000 and then facing a larger correction.