Jerome Powell has announced he will step down as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, while continuing to serve as a governor. This decision aligns with market expectations, which currently price a 76.5% likelihood of his departure by that date. The transition is expected to be smooth, with Kevin Warsh anticipated to succeed him following Senate confirmation. Powell's tenure as Chair has been notable for navigating challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and trade instability. His decision to remain on the Board of Governors alongside Warsh is unprecedented and may introduce some institutional tension, though Powell has pledged to maintain a low profile. Markets remain confident in a clear succession, with a 97.2% certainty in the May 31 sub-market that Powell will no longer be Chair.