Goldman Sachs has identified the Chinese yuan as significantly undervalued, estimating it to be 20-30% below its fair value against the US dollar. The investment bank's models, GSDEER and GSFEER, suggest the yuan's fair value is around 5.00 USD/CNY, compared to its current trading levels. Goldman forecasts the yuan to strengthen to 6.50 USD/CNY over the next year, driven by China's robust export performance and economic factors.
The bank's analysis, led by Teresa Alves, highlights China's widening current account surplus and low inflation as key factors supporting the yuan's undervaluation. Despite expected appreciation, Goldman projects the yuan will remain undervalued by 19% by 2035. The People's Bank of China's exchange rate management and capital controls are noted as factors influencing the currency's movement.
Goldman Sachs Sees Chinese Yuan Undervalued by Up to 30% Against USD
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