Bitcoin has surged over 20% since early April, reaching a three-month high, but CryptoQuant's Research Director Julio Moreno cautions that this may be a 'bear market rally.' On May 4, Bitcoin holders realized a daily profit of 14,600 BTC, the highest since December 2025. The short-term holder realized profit ratio has been above 1 since mid-April, signaling a 'clear profit-taking zone.' Moreno highlights that the 30-day rolling net profit has turned positive at +20,000 BTC for the first time since December 2025, suggesting a structural shift in bear market dynamics. However, this figure remains below the typical 130,000 to 200,000 BTC range seen in confirmed bull markets. With the current unrealized profit rate at 18%, historical trends indicate a potential pullback risk. Despite this, strong demand for perpetual futures and low exchange inflows suggest any pullback might be delayed.