Crédit Agricole has issued a warning about a potential year-end decline in the U.S. dollar, citing seasonal repatriation flows and exporter conversions as key factors. Historically, the dollar has weakened in approximately 70% of Decembers over the past 25 years, with USD/CHF identified as particularly susceptible.
The bank suggests that 2025's unprecedented foreign inflows into U.S. assets could intensify year-end profit-taking and foreign exchange hedging activities, further pressuring the dollar. While USD/CHF is seen as vulnerable, USD/JPY and USD/CAD may exhibit more resilience due to interest rate differentials and trade relationships.
Crédit Agricole Predicts Year-End USD Weakness Due to Repatriation Flows
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