Capital Economics analysis indicates that the recent U.S. Treasury sell-off stems primarily from shifting near-term interest rate expectations rather than AI-related debt issuance or fiscal concerns. Economist James Reilly attributes current yield levels, which are approaching June 2007 highs, to rising oil prices and economic strength, noting that AI-driven borrowing exerts less upward pressure than media reports suggest. Reilly projects the 10-year Treasury yield will fall sharply to 4.25% by the end of 2027 as Federal Reserve tightening proves less aggressive than investors currently anticipate. While AI-related debt issuance is expected to continue, its impact on yields should be offset by evolving monetary policy expectations, with no substantive fiscal news recently warranting a sharp surge in rates.