Research indicates that approximately 90% of increases in the nominal yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note since August 2020 have occurred within three-day windows surrounding nonfarm payroll releases and speeches by key Federal Reserve officials. The findings suggest that benchmark yield movements are heavily concentrated around specific macroeconomic events rather than being evenly distributed over time.
Economists Paul Beaudry of the University of British Columbia, Paolo Cavallino of the Bank for International Settlements, and Tim Willems of the Bank of England conducted the analysis covering the past six years. Their study highlights the outsized impact of labor market data and central bank communications on U.S. government bond pricing in the post-2020 era.
90% of U.S. Treasury Yield Increases Cluster Around Jobs Data and Fed Speeches
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