Bitcoin's on-chain metrics, specifically the MVRV Term Structure, suggest a cautious market stance as of the latest four-week update. The Curve Heat Index (CHI), which averages the Z-scores of all MVRV tenors, remains low, indicating a 'cold' or stressed market environment. This defensive posture reflects a risk-off phase, with the market not yet showing signs of a trend reversal. For Bitcoin prices to rise, several conditions need to be met: price stabilization with higher lows, an increase in on-chain stress pushing CHI towards neutral, and an upward shift in the curve's slope from defensive to expansion. Additionally, a healthy reduction in the short-long spread is necessary. These factors, combined with a price reclaiming the trendline, could signal a bullish shift.