Bitcoin has officially entered the latter half of its bear market, according to analyst Murphy. Key on-chain metrics show the average cost basis of BTC held for 1–2 years has crossed with that of BTC held for 1–3 months, a signal with near-perfect reliability. Murphy also highlights Willy Woo’s CVDD metric, which reached $45,410 at the end of last month, indicating a significant reduction in on-chain trading by early whale holders. The CVDD metric, historically a reliable indicator, suggests that Bitcoin's price will not fall below approximately $45,500, even in a "final drop." This implies a theoretical maximum decline of about 30%, though the actual drop is expected to be smaller. The CVDD has consistently marked bear market bottoms without being breached, reinforcing confidence in its predictive power.