Bitcoin (BTC) surged 4% on Friday, reaching the $74,000 resistance level, but failed to break through, retreating to around $72,215. Analyst Sunny Mom from CryptoQuant warns that Bitcoin has not yet formed a structural bottom, suggesting potential further declines. On-chain data indicates a "stress test" phase, with mid-term investors facing losses and the MVRV ratio at 1.2, below the typical cyclical bottom threshold of 1.0. Long-term holders currently make up only 15% of the Realized Cap, lacking the support needed for a strong recovery. Sunny outlines two potential paths for Bitcoin to find its bottom: a sudden crash or a prolonged trading range between $60,000 and $80,000, with the latter extending into late 2026 or early 2027.