Bitcoin has surged close to $74,000 following the weekly settlement, approaching the upper boundary of its trading range since February. Despite this significant price movement, the options market remains largely indifferent. The implied volatility for end-of-term Bitcoin options remains below 50%, while Ethereum's is under 70%, both lower than the major term implied volatilities.
In terms of trading, large call option transactions account for less than 30%, focusing on shallow out-of-the-money options expiring at the end of the month. This is considered low given the 5% price increase. The options market has not priced this rally favorably, with the volatility risk premium rebounding but not turning positive, indicating that the market still perceives volatility as overestimated. The current trading range has not been effectively breached, and a breakthrough past $75,000 over the weekend, during low liquidity, is seen as challenging but necessary for a sustained rally.
Bitcoin Nears $74,000 Post-Weekly Settlement, Options Market Unmoved
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